Full launch, when?
0 voters
Poll is anonymous to incentivize honesty.
In the previous poll made in February 2020 88% guessed wrong (assuming no launch in 2021). In the poll from May 2019 79% predicted wrong.
well somebodys hopefulā¦ 
SN is currently in a final Baby Fleming stage, and it seems that SN will be a testnet until the Fleming stage. Because SN will have an upgrade function at the Maxwell stage according to the roadmap. Therefore, the launching will vary depending on how long the implementation of the Fleming takes. (Safe Network )
It looks like SN will be launched after having the upgrade function. Is that right?
I believe it will happen in 2022. Either way, that has to be the push. This world has gone so batshit it is now or never.
By 2023 internet freedom will look like medical freedom today. It will be highly illegal to access something like Safe by 2023. Your QR code could get turned off for food or accessing the internet for accessing something like Safe. QR code regulated social credit will be in full swing by then.
There are initiatives world wide to force a drivers license for the internet right now. We donāt have much time.
Iāve lost track of the progress at this rate (slightly), with all the super details and complexities newly behind the wheel approaching application in near-future tests. But like, full on launch? Past all the tests and betas, Iād say 2023 for optimismās sake, even though freedom concerns areā¦maybe even a little more than dire lately, to warrant it ideally coming in 2022.
Launch. Hmmmmmmm what do people understand from this? The first (test) network that
I suspect that each of the first 3 suggestions above will have some people saying yes to. Actual launch may just be a network that has been running for 3 or 6 months without any major bug fixes.
Many are waiting for the time when data will be permanent and never wiped. Others waiting for the time they can be rewarded in tokens that are the final tokens and will remain. And others will only accept launch when its officially stated.
Not trying to cause issues here but maybe a second poll could be made to determine what people will consider a working network (ie a ālaunchedā network)
All things must be in place for Maidsafe to feel comfortable having the conversion to the real SN Token, so I mark that as launch aka Beta.
Persistent data, farming, token economics, network splits/growth with Fleming ā Upgrades with Maxwell ā Token conversion ā Beta (launch)
Many are waiting for the time when data will be permanent and never wiped.
āManyā are not waiting for this, everyone is waiting for this. If the network wipes itself itās not a full launch.
Others waiting for the time they can be rewarded in tokens that are the final tokens and will remain.
If token is not final, itās not a full launch.
And others will only accept launch when its officially stated.
I expect it to be announced officially as a launch / beta launch. But if it ends up being a failed launch with the team having to go back to the drawing board Iād argue that wasnāt the launch after all. The full launch is when the network is live - forever.
Actual launch may just be a network that has been running for 3 or 6 months without any major bug fixes.
No, if the network has been running for 3-6 months without major bugs itās a successful launch, but the launch occurred the moment it went live.
To summarize:
A full launch is not a test network. A full launch is when the network is live - forever. That includes all essential features discussed; decentralization, permissionless, persistent data, token, farming, upgrades etc.
I asked Santa for SAFE for Christmas 2022. Iāve been a verrry good boy.
It will happen when it happens 
All true but I think @neoās point is that eventually a test net or pseudo launch like a fifteenth iteration of Fleming might be stable enough to keep running and if that is the case, perhaps that becomes the network, so where was launch really?
I think it will be a little bit more cut an dry and Iām trying to keep the definitions of launch based off of the most important aspects that need a fully functional network and define a new paradigm, which would be the conversion process from MAID to SN Token.
The last iteration would have been the launch. But this is nitpicking, the poll is about gauging the general sentiment.
Looking at the previous polls gives us interesting insight into the sentiment at the time.
Sorry, but I have to rant a bit regarding delayed launch:
Letās face it, people here have been terrible at predicting the launch date, but who can blame them? The project was originally supposed to launch in 2014.
In 2019 - 80% thought we were mere months away from launch, and thatās not the first time the community has felt that way. In 2019, after some internal reorganization of the team things were indeed looking up, perhaps better than ever. We were told that progress over the next 2 months would leave us spinning backwards, yet here we are, 2022 is around the corner and there is no sign of launch, not even testnet.
Itās not discussed anymore. We used to have github charts showing remaining process, but that was several years ago now. Whatever happened with the MVP?
A reoccurring theme over the years: Weāre seemingly super close to launch, and everyone believes it. Then something comes up. In 2014 it was decided to re-write everything in Rust. In 2018 PARSEC was all the rage. Now itās DBC.
On top of this it the endless amount of refactoring and performance related work that just never ends. Maybe itās the engineers dilemma - or just perfectionism gone wild.
Seriously, go dive into the old forum history and feel the sentiment at various stages. Itās amazingly accurate:
This is just a few examples, there are so many more. When you read these threads, does it seem like people think the launch is 8+ years away in 2014? 5+ years away in 2017?
Iām not blaming, but expectation does not match reality whatsoever.
At some point it might be worthwhile to ask how this could have happened. How could we be so wrong? How did weeks turn into months, months into years, and years into soon what will be decades?
Of course, a project of this scale is no easy feat, but thatās why a MVP was needed. Sometimes you need to cut corners to deliver. Iām a programmer, I know how tempting it is to keep perfecting my projects, but it never ends. Give me all the time in the world, I can continue to improve, explore new technologies forever and never deliver.
The future is looking extremely grim for the web. Mainstream thought, politicians and big business has all but taken over the major role and control of the internet. Freedom is long dead. Centralized platforms is easily regulated and forced to supress information. The anarchic, free, decentralized web is today a pipe dream. Almost all providers (from hosts to domain providers) participates in cancel culture. Those who refuse gets canceled themselves.
We needed a decentralized web 5 years ago, but today it is an emergency.
I donāt want to have to make another poll 5 years from now.
Itās not perfectionism. Itās about creating a network that works or doesnāt, and it seems that for the first time they are confident the core works and itās a matter of putting the essentials in place within that, ensuring it can survive, be upgraded etc.
As you are a developer, I expect you can tell the difference between building an application and getting drawn into endlessly perfecting it, or creating some astounding tech thatās never happened before.
2024 for me.
2022/2023 - full of bug hunting! 2 years of squashing bugs!
No offence, but you have been notoriously off in all your predictions. Youāve said basically the same thing for over half a decade.
Case in point, hereās a post from 2014:
Yes, you were planning a launch party. A launch party - in 2014?
Youāve made too many posts to read through it all, so Iāve just quickly skimmed some of your posts, but it goes on and on:
2015:
2017:
Yet, here you are - 7 years later - repeating the same mantra.
I understand youāre one of the people closest to the project. When you can be that delusional, what does that tell the rest of us?
When we never went for data chains but pivoted to a fully ordered network, very much against my will at least, but that happened. We now are doing data chains and added in DBCāss as a much better cash supply.
Had we gone data chains and CRDT back then the picture would be very different.
Why is it everytime we get a step closer and should be having good honest hope and optimism in the forum.
We always get served a steaming helping of FUD by our resident fudās?
Hey man, when youāre right, youāre right. I voted for 2023 because in reality, there is still so much to be done though once things are stable and the releases are already being streamlined, the team can grow/scale and everything can move much faster. So Iām trying to be conservative with that but I have no way of knowing. Weāre all been wrong before.
Iām judging progress on the strength/longevity/success of the test nets. So far itās working but not for long but those are just hang ups.
I see your concerns and they are valid. Iām personally confident, although Iām not rushing or pushing excessively hard on my development, just keeping steady, always thinking, but only time will tell āwhenā.
I think it is a āwhenā though and not āifā.
We should be more positive and supportive. Also active participants. So I hope that others can join in on that effort.