I think 20 years is a bit much because if this takes that long, something has gone wrong/something better is already coming. Perhaps it depends on where you are in your life and goals which makes sense. I also think we are a very very long way from $100/coin, so we will see how quick things get done and the vibe that comes from it.
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Sure, I donāt think weāll be seeing $100 a coin any time soon, but I could see it pushing that once the final product is out there which looks to be late 2020 at the very earliest at this point. The technology behind MAID far surpasses pretty much any other crypto project.
This is also assuming marketing is up to the task, and other projects like Skycoin or IOTA havenāt taken over the potential market by then, with inferior, but quicker to market solutions.
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Iām a huge proponent of taking the time necessary to get this done properly and have voiced that but if there is no full launch until late 2020, this may very well have an adoption issue. In any case believe in it whatever way you wish and hopefully all of this comes together.
Sounds like the definition of a hodler
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Well I find it odd that everyone ābelievesā but wants to turn in back to fiat. Secondarily, iām not a trader and I have made way more money over time because Iām not. You can have it whatever way you like.
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When will i see a Safecoin at USD15 
I agree, have said adoption is key a few times but i am not sure if people see that. Its not just about the tech. You simply cannot have one without the other.
Take a look at the roadmap - looks like there is really a lot left to be done. Iāve been watching and cheering it on for three years. I wish them all possible success but I no longer think that beta is just around the corner, nor do I think that mass adoption is a given anymore. We can hope and itās great to see there are still many loyal supporters. Is there any indication from the team that release will be soon? If the hardest work is past then surely they have an idea. Years? Months? Even a ballpark guesstimate, not hard date, would be very welcome.
Beta was not talked about, it was alpha 3. I thought alpha 3 will be released this year or even this summer, but it looks like this is not going to happen. Which roadmap do you mean? The one on the new website?
In a Dev Update 4 weeks ago, it was advised a stocktake of work on hand had been done so that a critical path could be developed/updated (my interpretation of the update). The community was going to be advised further sometime down the track. It will be interesting to see what is advised.
Yes that roadmap. Seems like an awful lot to do. But maybe to a coder/developer itās not. Just my experience from observing the progress over years, maybe still years. I would love to be corrected.
So we need a roadmap for the roadmap maybe??))
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I agree with this, its great to try to get it as good as it can be before launch but I fear that the longer it takes the less users there will be when it does finally go live.
There are other projects for decentralised storage cementing their position and developing partnerships, and although thatā's not all SAFE does it could be a great driver for adoption.
Also if privacy coins are going to have a chance at getting big because of regulation / kyc and so on unmasking and tracking users then that will probably happen before too long and it would be a shame if safecoin wasnāt around to draw users if / when it does.
There is couple decentralized storage projects, some decentralized networks and some decentralized servers but still SAFE network does not have any competitor who will be able to do it same or more.
It is better to have beta this year than wait for main lunch for all other projects, but after 2 years SAFE network might have still big adoption since start.
Mav calculate future value of 1 safecoin if SAFE network will be guite popular and several decades old.
For 1 safecoins you should get 52,5 GETs
This would mean in today prices to be profitable by farming safecoins.
1 SafeCoin should be worth around 12 000$ in today prices.
Edit: If price per 1 GB will drop to 50% every 5 years than after 30 years it would be around 1SafeCoin = 200$
No that isnāt the calculation. I love the sound of $12K safecoin but the calculation is nothing to do with safecoin price.
Would be interested to know how you progressed from 52.5M PUTs per safecoin to $12K per safecoin.
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It is based on today HW price 1 PUT = 8 MB, While from the start the farming can be less or more profitable, after 10 or 20 years the market should follow price of HW, bandwidth and maintenance. $12k price was only with today price of HW, $200 would be after 30 years if 1GB price will drop to half every 5 years.
And two more assumptions :
-
GET is just little bigger than PUT
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90% of all SafeCoins are on the market
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And @mav was misreading the calculations. The storecost is in units of PUT balance and does not equate to PUTs/coin
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I was recently asked
is there any chance you could give a realistic price expectation of Maidsafecoin
The chance of me giving a price expectation is 100% (here it is!) but the chance of it being realistic is 0% (since nobody knows the future!)
Starting with an upper bound on growth, look at the most wildly successful companies in a somewhat similar space to this project:
Dropbox took 11 years to reach 11B market cap
Amazon 24 years to reach 963B
Google 20 years to reach 830B
Microsoft 43 years to reach 877B
Facebook 14 years to reach 475B
Ebay 23 years to reach 32B
Bitcoin 10 years to reach 111B
Western Digital 48 years to reach 17B
Seagate 39 years to reach 13B
Comcast 55 years to reach 162B
Alibaba 19 years to reach 422B
Netflix 21 years to reach 160B
Salesforce 19 years to reach 120B
Spotify 12 years to reach 32B
Orange SA 30 years to reach 42B
YCombinator 13 years to reach 100B
Averaging this out, I would be thinking that wild success would be something like 273B market cap in 25 years (assumptions abound).
Adjust for confidence / risk that the network will or will not be a wild success - probably not a linear adjustment since the distance between each of the top companies in each field is quite significant. For the statement āThereās X% chance of capturing X% market shareā I put long-term X at about, maybeā¦ 5 (you could do X and Y instead of X and X but the tighter constraint of just one variable is a more interesting thought experiment). The network is still a risky development; existing markets wonāt be easy to migrate across and new markets take time to discover the best solutions. But X could easily be higher, based on a growing desire for control over personal data, simplification of data administration, growth in the sharing economy, a great story to go with the product, powerful and user-friendly apps from the start, broadness of the problem and solution space being addressed, extremely robust underlying technology, brilliant people being continually attracted to the project, clear governance and development models, permissionless participationā¦ or lower, since the techology is unproven, the market is complex, regulatory environment is unclear, inertia of existing crypto ecosystemā¦
Adjust for broadness of the network. Itās software, but itās also hardware, but itās also an ecosystem, but itās also a database, but itās also apps, ā¦ so comparing to any single existing company may or may not be valid. For simplicity Iām just going to assume itās comparable to a single wildly successful tech company.
Adjust for timing - inflation rate of new safecoins, development, onboarding app developers, influences by governance and red tape, time to research undeveloped features, capacity of the network to increase available resources, rate of white hats vs rate of black hatsā¦ too many unknowns so Iāll just say it follows an average wildly succesful company timeline of 25 years.
I have no clear answer to what I think the price will be. Taking a really simplistic approach, 5% confidence of a 13B (273Ć0.05) market cap would be a 1-in-20 chance of 100x the current valuation in a period of up to 25 years (actually itās the first time Iāve put numbers to this, to me the tech is the interesting part, the market and price is really boring).
Whatās your X in āThereās X% chance of capturing X% market shareā?
Do you think the analysis of wildly successful companies needs adjusting? What does āmildlyā successful look like?
What about the timeline? Do the past 12 years of development count? Is it a fast growth or slow growth network?
Will the existing market be attracted enough to change to using SAFE? How will that happen?
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