Well I find it odd that everyone “believes” but wants to turn in back to fiat. Secondarily, i’m not a trader and I have made way more money over time because I’m not. You can have it whatever way you like.
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When will i see a Safecoin at USD15 
I agree, have said adoption is key a few times but i am not sure if people see that. Its not just about the tech. You simply cannot have one without the other.
Take a look at the roadmap - looks like there is really a lot left to be done. I’ve been watching and cheering it on for three years. I wish them all possible success but I no longer think that beta is just around the corner, nor do I think that mass adoption is a given anymore. We can hope and it’s great to see there are still many loyal supporters. Is there any indication from the team that release will be soon? If the hardest work is past then surely they have an idea. Years? Months? Even a ballpark guesstimate, not hard date, would be very welcome.
Beta was not talked about, it was alpha 3. I thought alpha 3 will be released this year or even this summer, but it looks like this is not going to happen. Which roadmap do you mean? The one on the new website?
In a Dev Update 4 weeks ago, it was advised a stocktake of work on hand had been done so that a critical path could be developed/updated (my interpretation of the update). The community was going to be advised further sometime down the track. It will be interesting to see what is advised.
Yes that roadmap. Seems like an awful lot to do. But maybe to a coder/developer it’s not. Just my experience from observing the progress over years, maybe still years. I would love to be corrected.
So we need a roadmap for the roadmap maybe??))
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I agree with this, its great to try to get it as good as it can be before launch but I fear that the longer it takes the less users there will be when it does finally go live.
There are other projects for decentralised storage cementing their position and developing partnerships, and although that’'s not all SAFE does it could be a great driver for adoption.
Also if privacy coins are going to have a chance at getting big because of regulation / kyc and so on unmasking and tracking users then that will probably happen before too long and it would be a shame if safecoin wasn’t around to draw users if / when it does.
There is couple decentralized storage projects, some decentralized networks and some decentralized servers but still SAFE network does not have any competitor who will be able to do it same or more.
It is better to have beta this year than wait for main lunch for all other projects, but after 2 years SAFE network might have still big adoption since start.
Mav calculate future value of 1 safecoin if SAFE network will be guite popular and several decades old.
For 1 safecoins you should get 52,5 GETs
This would mean in today prices to be profitable by farming safecoins.
1 SafeCoin should be worth around 12 000$ in today prices.
Edit: If price per 1 GB will drop to 50% every 5 years than after 30 years it would be around 1SafeCoin = 200$
No that isn’t the calculation. I love the sound of $12K safecoin but the calculation is nothing to do with safecoin price.
Would be interested to know how you progressed from 52.5M PUTs per safecoin to $12K per safecoin.
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It is based on today HW price 1 PUT = 8 MB, While from the start the farming can be less or more profitable, after 10 or 20 years the market should follow price of HW, bandwidth and maintenance. $12k price was only with today price of HW, $200 would be after 30 years if 1GB price will drop to half every 5 years.
And two more assumptions :
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GET is just little bigger than PUT
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90% of all SafeCoins are on the market
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And @mav was misreading the calculations. The storecost is in units of PUT balance and does not equate to PUTs/coin
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I was recently asked
is there any chance you could give a realistic price expectation of Maidsafecoin
The chance of me giving a price expectation is 100% (here it is!) but the chance of it being realistic is 0% (since nobody knows the future!)
Starting with an upper bound on growth, look at the most wildly successful companies in a somewhat similar space to this project:
Dropbox took 11 years to reach 11B market cap
Amazon 24 years to reach 963B
Google 20 years to reach 830B
Microsoft 43 years to reach 877B
Facebook 14 years to reach 475B
Ebay 23 years to reach 32B
Bitcoin 10 years to reach 111B
Western Digital 48 years to reach 17B
Seagate 39 years to reach 13B
Comcast 55 years to reach 162B
Alibaba 19 years to reach 422B
Netflix 21 years to reach 160B
Salesforce 19 years to reach 120B
Spotify 12 years to reach 32B
Orange SA 30 years to reach 42B
YCombinator 13 years to reach 100B
Averaging this out, I would be thinking that wild success would be something like 273B market cap in 25 years (assumptions abound).
Adjust for confidence / risk that the network will or will not be a wild success - probably not a linear adjustment since the distance between each of the top companies in each field is quite significant. For the statement “There’s X% chance of capturing X% market share” I put long-term X at about, maybe… 5 (you could do X and Y instead of X and X but the tighter constraint of just one variable is a more interesting thought experiment). The network is still a risky development; existing markets won’t be easy to migrate across and new markets take time to discover the best solutions. But X could easily be higher, based on a growing desire for control over personal data, simplification of data administration, growth in the sharing economy, a great story to go with the product, powerful and user-friendly apps from the start, broadness of the problem and solution space being addressed, extremely robust underlying technology, brilliant people being continually attracted to the project, clear governance and development models, permissionless participation… or lower, since the techology is unproven, the market is complex, regulatory environment is unclear, inertia of existing crypto ecosystem…
Adjust for broadness of the network. It’s software, but it’s also hardware, but it’s also an ecosystem, but it’s also a database, but it’s also apps, … so comparing to any single existing company may or may not be valid. For simplicity I’m just going to assume it’s comparable to a single wildly successful tech company.
Adjust for timing - inflation rate of new safecoins, development, onboarding app developers, influences by governance and red tape, time to research undeveloped features, capacity of the network to increase available resources, rate of white hats vs rate of black hats… too many unknowns so I’ll just say it follows an average wildly succesful company timeline of 25 years.
I have no clear answer to what I think the price will be. Taking a really simplistic approach, 5% confidence of a 13B (273×0.05) market cap would be a 1-in-20 chance of 100x the current valuation in a period of up to 25 years (actually it’s the first time I’ve put numbers to this, to me the tech is the interesting part, the market and price is really boring).
What’s your X in “There’s X% chance of capturing X% market share”?
Do you think the analysis of wildly successful companies needs adjusting? What does ‘mildly’ successful look like?
What about the timeline? Do the past 12 years of development count? Is it a fast growth or slow growth network?
Will the existing market be attracted enough to change to using SAFE? How will that happen?
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I think a high realistic long term goal is $20.00 per SAFE Coin. But since this is crypto and many successful projects generally get pumped to the moon I personally want to see $60.00 per SAFE Coin, and that is what the greedy investor in me wants (cause who doesn’t want financial freedom where money is no longer a stress). What the techy nerd side of me wants is to see this baby live in action helping millions around the world store and access data quickly and securely. With further version releases that can support crazy ideas like VMs running on SAFE for remote desktop or something of that nature.
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95% of current crypto projects that currently have a coin, if not more, will be expelled from existence in the next 3-6 years. We will be left with far fewer projects or those projects that do exist will hold no real value for anything other than individualized utility such as a gambling coin at an online block chain casino. If this succeeds it will hit $20 so fast your head will spin. That’s a 9 billion market cap give or take. Assuming success of the network this will blow through and hold $150 no problems no issues. We are also assuming a growth in all things crypto over the next 2 years which appears roughly where we are headed to launch. It’s also worth considering all those company market caps listed by @mav can all be accomplished or used in some way on the network.
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Total coin supply is about 4.5 Billion though its not in circulation yet. But as the network would go live the circulation is expected to be more than 2 Billion (after 1 years of launch) at any time that makes it a $40 Billion market cap for $20 price. This is highly doubtable in current setup, however the future is expected to change with mass adoption.
That doesn’t make sense. The supply at 20 years is not expected to be 4 billion or above. Why soon after live would it be 2 billion. That is like an extra 1.25 billion rise without even considering the spend (destroy) rate.
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