These estimations are worth less than the particles that were used to transmit them. “Somewhere between zero and the sky” is probably the most precise anybody with a bit of intellectual integrity should attempt.
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I agree, but it’s nice have a little fun now and then too. “Zero and the sky” is too broad.
Anybody with any intellectual integrity probably shouldn’t backdoor an insult.
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That’s obviously a false statement. Nobody is rolling a dice or using a random number generator to make these estimates. Such an approach would obviously be worthless. The methodologies used by the people making these estimates are given by the people making them. You may disagree with some of those methodologies, but saying that no amount of effort to carefully compare two or more assets with respect to one another is worth doing is nonsense.
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It amounts to less than rolling a dice. A dice is simple randomness, while adoption is based on feedback loops and, as such, is a highly nonlinear process. We’re out of luck even if we assume a stationary case (which is grossly oversimplifying the situation) because a small uncertainty about the parameters will lead to vastly different results over time. Like, billions of times different. And please note I assumed the simplest case, having a correct model and no change of parameters over time. Real life is infinitely more complex.
These predictions, however smart and educated they may sound, are pure bullshit, a result of a complete lack of understanding about the inherent intractability of the processes involved.
Your statement applies to pretty much any real world situation. The world is non-linear. You can predict it will take you 30 minutes to get to work today, and I’ll tell you how stupid you were for making such a prediction, since there could be extra traffic, there could be a car accident, or you could experience acute appendicitis on the way there. What a silly idiot you were, to have the temerity to predict how long it would take to go to work.
As humans, we deal with making predictions about the world given imperfect knowledge, and when we get it wrong, which we do constantly, because of the non-linearities of the world, we smile and move on. We don’t curl up in a hole and never predict anything. Eventually, our predictions converge with reality. We may need to modify those predictions as often as your local weatherman, but eventually they do converge. Just because you may need to modify them in the future is no reason to never make any predictions at all. You will lose the game of life doing that, as you’ll be surprised by every single thing that occurs. Even the sun coming up will surprise you.
This isn’t actually true. There are plenty of cases where we can make very good predictions, such as Jupiter’s orbit or the probability of a 350+ lbs person among 25 Americans. Stock returns and the likes of it don’t belong to this group.
Yes, as humans that’s what we do. It’s not a big problem unless that human is doing that while gambling with a few million people’s retirement accounts, planning for the 100-year flood, building for the next big earthquake, or giving people bullshit investment advice. At those times, the right thing to do is to transcend our human tendencies and look at the freaking math, which says: these things work fundamentally differently than counting fat Americans in a group.
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Gotta say, not loving your argument style and continued anti-American ranting. I predict you would be much more polite in person.
That wasn’t really the point. I have many American friends, wonderful people. It’s just a matter of fact that I’ve never met as many fat people anywhere else, so it felt like a good example. If you’re American and traveled anywhere else, you already know.
The point is, there are safe predictions, for example about the distribution of body weight within a group, or the time the sun will come up, and there are unsafe predictions, such as the distribution of returns for an asset. These two types of things are fundamentally different not only quantitatively but also qualitatively – the same methods aren’t just not good enough, they simply don’t work. Prediction is not just a lot harder, it’s plain impossible. That’s my entire argument.
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As a point of order, Australia, New Zealand, Canada and the UK are all within a few % points of the US in overweight %, and all within 5% in obese %, and those countries are all catching up to the US in obesity very quickly. The English speaking world (outside of Ireland which is also growing bigger quickly) is generally a lot bigger than the rest of the Western world for some reason. I would guess the other English speaking countries are more likely to consume and relate to American culture a lot more.
In any case, pretty much all Western countries are seeing a significant rise in obesity, while the US has been slowing down growth.
There certainly have been people that have accurately predicted significant market shifts and trends. That’s not to say anyone here is one of those people, or that those people were accurate because of skill instead of luck. However, to say predicting something like growth of an asset is impossible is just not true. There have been both qualitative and quantitative models that have predicted shifts in the market and assets. Peter Schiff is a good example of this. He predicted the sharp rise of gold, and the real estate crash, and made a ton of money because of it. Granted he is a noted hater of crypto currency and also predicts it will all fail which I think is a silly notion.
Unless the project just plain fails at some point, I agree that we likely won’t see any major crash in MAID any time soon, regardless as to what the rest of the crypto market does. Speculators have long since left the coin as other assets are much more profitable in the short term, like Ripple (XRP), for example. If the project does succeed, then speculation can be wild, but there are certain precedence within the crypto market and the wider application of the technology as a whole that can be analyzed. What are the use cases? What % of the market could SAFE achieve in those spaces? What are the valuations of those spaces and projected growth of that space? What is the timeline to completion? What is the outlook for crypto in general?
Those are all variables you can use to create a qualitative, and possibly a somewhat accurate quantitative analysis with. You are right, in some sense. There is a reason why economics is not considered a science, and more of an art. There is certainly a nuance to it, and predictions can be wildly inaccurate, even with good assumptions underlying the predictions. However, that doesn’t mean that are all completely off base either.
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I do not really see price any better than it is now middle of 2019. The peaks have been Oct to Dec. It will depend on the developments and if Alpha 4 & Beta are ready. And even then how well the word gets out and if people start to pay attn. Any predictions before that based on any chart i would take with a pinch of salt. I would like to see those prices but at this point…will not be holding my breath.
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Agree. We haven’t got Alpha 3 yet. Even if it came with today’s development update we still need Alpha 4 before going Beta. Seeing that it takes over an year between iterations means more waiting and uncertainty and I would expect prices to reflect that.
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I think focusing on fairly arbitrary names like “Alpha 3/4” or “Beta” is pretty useless. Maidsafe could release something called “Beta” or “Zeta” today, but that wouldn’t change the fact the project is not finished yet. It’s not really a question of what Greek letters are being used.
cant see why alpha3 wouldnt be trigger for price to climb and also for the world to start be more involved and interested in this project, at this stage you have a Proven solution that works right? , hopefuly alpha3 will go live this year
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Not quite. You have a working routing system. Its Alpha 4 that proves it works with vaults at home
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I think what was meant was possibly PARSEC. And there is still some stuff missing from the complete proof. Am I right @neo?
I am not sure since they are going to have a few testnets before alpha 3 proper. Or its going to be alpha 3-1 alpha 3-2 alpha 3-3 etc
So they could have it finished by the time alpha3 proper is up and running.
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Taking it from another thread - Assume 30 EB total and growing @ 60 PB of data per day. 200 million farmers. What does this mean for the MAID price? of safecoin price?
Not enough information to know.
Need some of this info
- how much farming is being done (ie people reading data, safesites etc)
- How much spare space to used space ratio. For instance if have 30EB of data stored but there is 120EB of space in all the vaults opposed to the situation where 30EB data stored and 40EB of space in all the vaults
- How much mutation of Mutable Data objects is being done.
- How much utility has SAFEcoin got for buying selling goods
- How many people are hoarding coins.
- and more
But if just guess things and look at human nature, then your scenario would mean that SAFE is being used a LOT. And as such the need for coin to spend for resources is very high so the fiat price will be high.
Also spare space will not be all that high due to the rate of storage so farming rate will be reasonable. Thus all farmers will be happy with their rewards and willing to add more vaults/disk-space.
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Lets check some trends on global network usage.
Now Video content has about 60% of global download with continuing grow for next decade.
So if SAFEnetwork would like to be much bigger, than kind of Netflix service is necessary.
2018 statistic:
http://digg.com/2018/streaming-video-worldwide
80% of global download by 2020 ?
https://tubularinsights.com/video-79-percent-internet-traffic-2020/
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