MaidSafeCoin (MAID) - Price & Trading topic (Part 1)

[Tim87]

@Jabba

A winning short doesn’t shrink in a bear market, it grows.

I have to disagree. Let’s consider these two situations, where the price does exactly the same, just in the opposite direction, and you’re $100 invested on the happy side of the market:

• long side: 10% up, you make $10, another 10% up, now you make $11. Total: $22.

• short side: 10% drop, you make about $9.09; another 10% drop, now you make $8.26. Total: about $17.36.

What’s really funny though is when you consider that if the market goes against you, then a long loses only $17.36, the short $22.

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Sorry, I posted it too early by accident; I may add some more stuff here during the next 5-10 minutes.

@Jabba

My point was that a bear can be quite reckless if he believes the market is headed down. […] As long as a market is big enough and you believe the trend is going down you can short the hell out of it.

Yea, and they will be the ones with first hand experience about natural selection I still don’t see how beliefs can change whether they will blow up or not. I agree that, more often than not, it won’t happen. But

I’m not against shorting, it’s very useful for diversifying, and allows you trade when everybody else is sitting on the sidelines. I just don’t see it as the driving force behind what’s happening. And yes, it’s partially because short positions are naturally more fragile, as I demonstrated it above: they can win less and lose more for the same sized market move.

@Jabba

When BTC booms most of the Alts selling is not from holders, it comes from shorters who think the price should now be lower to arb its fiat value.

I can’t see how it is shorters taking the value down then. When BTC booms, so it’s natural that the price of all the penny coins would go the opposite direction. Short sellers were idiots not going after the low hanging fruit.

@Jabba

People have targets they will take profits at in trading, so the upside is limited

I don’t believe targets are part of all strategies. In fact, I would not consider a strategy that have targets. The one I’m testing does work with out-of-money targets for the rare event of an unusual spike, but otherwise it just goes with the flow as long as it can.

@Jabba

Now you’re really confusing me lol. I thought I was the one saying shorters aren’t the enemy. They help the market find its price. They are not scheming against anyone, they are quite rightly taking action to take profit where they think the market is making a mistake.

Oh, I think you misunderstood me. I have nothing against shorting, quite the contrary: it’s very useful, exactly as you’re saying. I just don’t think short sellers can move the market much because they are starting from a clear disadvantage, so they need to tread soft. Again, please refer to the simple math from above.

As for margin trading, it’s a useful tool, I just don’t think that margin trading can stabilize a market anymore than a few more cylinders can make a car more secure to drive.

And I’ll take a nap now

[Jabba]

Absolutely true, but once again you’re talking about compounding gains on an investment. I’m talking about single target trades of 1-5% that the vast majority of short-term margin trades are based on.

I agree with the sense you’re talking, just not the context. I don’t think that applies with margin activity as that is mostly scalpers, day traders etc.

Anyway, it’s all good bro. As I say, I certainly don’t ‘know’, I’m just limited to what I think ;). I might not be able to respond in full as I have a lot on tomorrow, but I appreciate your points. You may have something that I’ve missed, but I feel like I’m still missing it really. I’m a investor pretty much now. I hardly trade at all and I certainly never made a fortune trading, so what do I know really. I just have a big mouth and an opinion about everything

EDIT: This is just response to the first bit of yours. I’ll get to the rest another day

EDIT EDIT: Sod it, still not quite tired enough for bed yet

@Tim87

I still don’t see how beliefs can change whether they will blow up or not.

Beliefs are all that speculator markets are really based on? If I believe gold will downtrend for the next 2 decades then I’m bearish and can short aggressively whenever it is booming well over the trend I believe I have identified. Eth and BTC are where they are because people believe in them, when their faith/belief is shaken by things like ‘china banning bitcoin’ or Mike Hearn etc the value plummets.

@Tim87

I just don’t see it as the driving force behind what’s happening.

Me neither, but it is a vital tool without which things can certainly get more volatile. Like I said, the bears need a voice to temper the enthusiasm of the bulls. If they can’t short then the bubble must be bigger, no?

@Tim87

as I demonstrated it above: they can win less and lose more for the same sized market move.

But in practice you are talking about traders making plays for minutes or hours, so I’m not sure how that makes margin trading an undesirable or irrelevant thing? If you’re trying to persuade me that it is more profitable to go long on something than short then that depends on the situation and currencies you get paid in. If you short an alt in a btc boom then your gains increase because you are winning in BTC when you short, which is rising and that’s what is pushing the alt down. So the maths is not always as simple as your example above.

Basically, if I think gold will fall tomorrow and I want to make some money I still short gold tomorrow. Shorting is all good, and when I short it I help it find it’s true value faster.

Ok, I’m frazzled enough for bed now - not even sure if that made sense. Let’s get back to talking about maid specifically lol

[rand_om]

@Jabba

Well, there are two conversations here, margins and leverage.

Where’s the difference, in your opinion?

[Jabba]

Margin facilities provide a tool with which to borrow coins, leverage determines the amount of them you can borrow.

[Tim87]

@Jabba

I just have a big mouth and an opinion about everything

I don’t think you stand a chance if that’s what we’re competing in

@Jabba

Me neither, but it is a vital tool without which things can certainly get more volatile.

We quite agree on the basics then

Though I would always approach shorting (and anything else market related) as the means extract some more value for my greedy self, first

@Jabba

But in practice

You may be quite right about it. That curve is close to flat in the beginning. It’s just that one have to babysit a short position much closer than a long one. The difference is like that of being in the bowl or on the bowl: things accelerate in the right v.s. the wrong direction.

@Jabba

So the maths is not always as simple as your example above.

I get what you mean. We may have a disadvantaged basic situation by virtue of being short, but it may be alleviated by what made that short possible to start with.

However, exactly because those two processes are so strongly correlated, they don’t help with the risk: if they change, they will change at the same time. If I don’t size my positions expecting that, I’m screwed when it happens.

Correlation between different instruments is always high in bear markets in general, but it’s even more so for crypto, where BTC drives everything. Basically, I may have 17 short positions, but I’m hardly more diversified than if I just had one.

@Jabba

Let’s get back to talking about maid specifically lol

That’s a tough one. Maid is awesome; there’s no question about that. Maidsafecoin is cool, and it’s fun to have it out there: most importantly, it helped fund development. Now it’s useful for publicity and speculation (you can call it “investing,” idc )

As for its current price and value, I’m fully convinced it has zero relationship to the product: it’s defined purely by speculation, manipulation, and random processes.

The first opportunity for that to change is when the first test network with coins is released, and people outside this circle of enthusiasts get a chance to see that the concept’s working in practice. I expect a huuuuge bubble at that point. Depending on how long before the live network from that point, how many setbacks, how marketing (e.g. by this community) works out, that bubble may burst or it may hold through the live start; that’s impossible to tell just yet.

[Tim87]

@rand_om

@Jabba

Well, there are two conversations here, margins and leverage.

Where’s the difference, in your opinion?

From a practical point of view: you can’t short without margin. Margin trading with no additional leverage makes no difference for longs, but it makes shorting possible.

@Jabba

Beliefs are all that speculator markets are really based on?

(sorry, i forgot to answer this one) I think we’re looking at this from very different angles. You seem to approach it from the direction of “how a trader can act” and of course it’s determined by their beliefs about the market. (It’s more complex, but more about that in a bit.)

I’m more focused on what actually happens, and how it affects the trader. That most certainly does not depend on what the trader believed, only in the sense that if he acted on the wrong beliefs without limiting his risk for the contingency, then that trader joins the rest of the 97% who lose money on the long run.

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Back to why I said it’s more complex. Many robust strategies take a losing position 60-70% of the time. Basically, the trader is more often wrong about the market than he is right, and he goes into each and every trade being fully aware of that. When they go short, they are fairly confident that position will turn against them and they’ll have to exit with a loss. But it’s fine, because they also know that the times it wins will make up for those losses.

I’m testing a really silly strategy that does aggressive mean-reversion* during uptrends. It has a win rate only around 40% but it still makes a little more than it loses.

* errm… i’m not sure that’s technically correct, or else the return distribution would look different

[neo]

12 million up for lending on Poloniex and 2.8 million at 0.009% and 6 million at 0.010%

I wouldn’t waste my time or risk MAID with that %age

[riddim]

slightly off-topic Oo am i the only one seeing a smiley-face in that picture (in the wikipedia-article) …? Oo

[Jabba]

@MyLegacyKit

I dare to differ a little here. Both assets have features that can be compared, and some cannot be compared. Both have useful features that work in certain circumstances

True, I think everyone should hold a little gold and silver. I stand by the statement though. SAFEcoin would be waaaay more useful than gold or silver.

I’ve not heard of an NEMP going off very often, but people need to store and serve data every day.

As far as utility goes I’d have to say that a functioning SAFEcoin would thrash the pants off gold (and btc etc). Gold does have some unique advantages, but it isn’t as useful as SAFEcoin would/will be imo.

I still hold a bit of gold and silver ofc. Financial security is about diversifying and spreading risks. I agree that it’s silly not to hold some PMs too if you’re trying to prepare for a future full of unknowns.

SAFEcoin utility is a whole other scale to crypto in general though imo. And I hold some gold, but I have never ‘used’ it for anything.

[Jabba]

More interestingly… BTC $1236 on bitfinex, Gold $1247/oz.

If we break parity then most likely quite a few major news outlets will run a story on ‘the new digital gold’ over the next few days.

[Josh]

@Jabba

BTC $1236 on bitfinex, Gold $1247/oz.

Why is that a big deal, I dont see it as important?
I mean BTC price rising above gold price…

[Jabba]

It’s not at all important really, the market cap of BTC is still tiny next to gold. But the press write rubbish about rubbish half the time, they’re just content machines, not interesting information sources ;). In the short-term though it means that until the SEC refuse the ETF on 11th March we might see more BTC press and optimism.

[Josh]

@Jabba

SEC refuse the ETF on 11th

do you anticipate a major crash if its a no?

[Jabba]

I’d expect profit taking traders to start dumping it before the decision, probably 7th/8th March is when I’d sell my BTC if I was gambling on it. Who knows though really. I’m not sure enough to punt directly. I’m just watching like a hawk in case I can react to something.

[rblock]

Price is pretty low right now. Should I stock up some more safe or wait till it gets lower?

[neo]

@rblock

Price is pretty low right now. Should I stock up some more safe or wait till it gets lower?

Still a lot of downward pressure with BTC rising. Also it is coming off a 8000 low which rocketed up to 21K so it could retrace back to 10000 before going up again.

One way of hedging your “bets” is to put orders (maybe 10 or so orders) in from current price down to whatever you feel it might go to.

That way you at least get some if it doesn’t go down much more, but you gain a lot if it does.

[Tim87]

@rblock

Price is pretty low right now. Should I stock up some more safe or wait till it gets lower?

Let’s look at the chart across a longer time period:

Does it seem like a good moment to buy?

[neo]

@rblock

Should I stock up some more safe

Did you just buy up a tidy packet of MAID?

[harryharry89]

I look forward to the day when the Maid chart looks like the DASH chart right now - steady but spectacular rise with minimal retrace!)