I don’t think you’re crazy. I just see testsafecoin as the point of no return really. Until that comes and while BTC is mooning even something as amazing as SAFE can get even more undervalued than it currently is. After that point I’m guessing it will rise very fast and to dizzying heights even before the final move to SAFEcoins. I don’t see why in the short term it can’t retrace to a bottom of its previous ATH at 12c, and that could easily end up being around 10k sats with BTC on the rise. Who knows though, I just want to make sure I’m happy either way.
You could certainly be right and you might make a lot more for just being diligent and not taking any punts. History shows those kinds of investors usually do best in the things with the most upside - Buffet-style.
I have also been surprised by some of the reactions of people I know to learning about Maidsafe, but then I’m encouraged by the fact that the people who were inspired to look closer (most of whom will probably be lurking and reading this post) are the people I most respect with the most open and enquiring minds It’s no different to back in the mid 90s when only a few people were really excited about the internet and most people you spoke to had all kinds of daft reasons why it was bad, or would fail, or couldn’t be of any interest or use to them.
I don’t think you’re mad anyway. I hope you’re right. I’m happy for it to zoom up sooner rather than later. It really ought to for so many reasons.
Totally the same here meet someone else with the same problem I think some others would have tripled my coins over the years by being more self-assured.
The last round I really missed (again again again piuuuuuuuuuw ) but on the other hand being satisfied and holding 2-3 years without touching will give crazy results imo.
I’ve done to many crazy things the last years to be crazy again now with my maids, but maybe some later with a small part I’ll do some moves if I can find the courage.
If you’ve waited this long I wouldn’t muck about now. Playtime is nearly over And fwiw I didn’t do anything much during the previous bubbles either, what I have hedged or sold since 2015 I’ve generally regretted and could have made more by just holding all of it from the high point of what I had. I’ve not done much here. It’s just like you say, we’ve seen the cycle so many times and BTC has a slim shot at a big bump too.
You’ve been right to stay solid imo. As I say, I would have made more just holding and accumulating MAID and forgetting about any attempts at getting clever over the last two years. Maid is still way over 10x from when I got in originally. And it has outperformed BTC… and will continue to do so over the long term imo.
Yeah probably it’s better this way… We are so many years in crypto now and it only has to start imo.
But lurking so long on different projects now brings trading restlessness with it some days.
@jabba To bad for you
I also lost really much through the years. If I have to tell the truth to some people they’ll say …
But I made more then I lost in the end till now so …
The only thing I’m searching for is being calm, spread investments and follow up.
Maybe this doesn’t exist in this world. I don’t know yet…
Edit: Buh
Edit2: Correcting sentence
Edit3: Adding edit2
(having to much time I guess)
I guess what I have been saying is that prices of coins/stocks go in cycles. Upturn followed by downturn followed by upturn.
And there are the small cycles and the large.
SAFE going way high was always going to be followed by a large downturn and smaller cycles inside that large one.
Also I was trying to say that each large cycle has seen the lows of the cycle on a steady upward trend. In other words MAID is on a upward trend with highs and lows occurring.
Thus I am not worried by a ATH followed by a large drop. Which by the way never drops lower than the previous large drop. - a rising trend. (in BTC and $$$ terms).
I am a holder but trade with a small portion of a few coins (barely worth talking about), which is why I take a interest in the current price.
If I was purely holding then I wouldn’t even look at the price until testSAFEcoin came out. The market is too manipulated to get a realistic view of the worth of MAID till then,[quote=“Audity, post:1172, topic:9923”]
and I should’ve sold
[/quote]
Please do not take any of the talk as telling anyone they should’ve sold.
It was only to reassure you that the downturns are expected and even if the price goes to 10K BTC then its still a win, a rise of significant amounts over the last big low.
Anyone noticed MAID not being available on shapeshift? Still shows the price feed at the bottom. Normally if they are out of a certain coin they still have it listed.
Yep, and most speculator-led bubbles retrace anywhere from 30-80% of the gains.
I’m no expert, but the story of market behaviour seems to make plenty of sense to my untrained eye. People chase each other up the buy book like sheep, all in a terrible rush and panicking about short term up-trends. When the fomo runs out of steam people start taking profit and all the speculator interest starts panicking about getting out with a profit (short-term mentality, trading prices instead of the underlying story). The whole cycle is alleviated slightly by adding liquidity via margin trading, so the extra volume can be used to short the booms before they get too big and bounce the dips when they close… contrary to what the good folks at the PBoC would have you believe. ;).
All crypto’s still have very low volumes and even the margin trading on polo isn’t enough to keep MAID at all stable really. As neo says, we’ll need to be post testsafecoin for that kind of market most likely. Really it is utility that will lift that floor higher every day, not profit-taking speculators.
When all is said and done it’s just the increased investment or utility demand that holds up the floor. Influxes of new money cause buying frenzies that retrace their fomo as speculators move from one ‘hot asset’ to the next. The big influxes of money are almost always a mix of investors, traders and pump groups (at all levels). The only thing that softens the cycle is scale, when those ‘big money’ influxes become proportionally smaller as the market grows. Slowly it becomes more expensive to manipulate the market and the booms take on smaller and smaller %s. Until you get to proper markets like gold where only the money printers themselves can afford to manipulate them.
@4M8B If I may. You need to be mentally prepared for the trades you want to make. Imo, trading is so emotional , it just screws things up for you if you’re not prepared. Determine an amout that you will never trade with, so you’re safe if something goes wrong. Also always good to recognize ones feelings, like when am I FOMO’ing , when am I FUDding . And for starters, remember the pattern below - don’t fall for it, use it .
Following sheep is a perfectly legitimate strategy as long as it delivers a right-tailed return distribution with positive expectancy
Profits Before Ego™
Doesn’t it work the other way around? Leverage just magnifies things, won’t fix them. When a market grows and volatility becomes low, you need it just to be able to do anything. Yes, the other thing you can do with margin is to go short, however…
How can booms be capped by short sellers? I had the impression that you need available borrow for shorting, so you can’t as much move the market than just follow along as the long holders are liquidating their positions.
My other problem is about natural selection: traders with a habit of shorting booms exit the pool prematurely. From a strategy point of view, it’s like entering the market in the middle of a squeeze, that you don’t know when will end: you may be right about the final outcome, but chances are you’ll get a margin call during that last rally you were wrong about, and you’ll never get there. Certainty of ruin in the long run, even if it works spectacularly before that happens.
Yes! Only growth can squish volatility. Not only will few left with the resources to manipulate the prices, but fluctuations even out better when there are more players, se things can’t just randomly blow up so easily.
[quote=“Jabba, post:1181, topic:9923”]
All crypto’s still have very low volumes[/quote]
Crypto is play money in the context of things greater. Yes, it can entertain about 0.1% of the world’s population, some of whom can make a living off of it, or get rich even. Let’s not forget though that there are literally dozens of individuals with higher net worth than all crypto market caps combined, and the daily forex trading volume (not market cap!) is hundreds of times bigger. No surprise, therefore, that the volatility isn’t reminiscent to that of “real” money.
This is a very interesting question to me. We’ll again have something with a dual function: firstly, a medium of exchange, but also directly linked to a utility. We already have things like this: gold is directly valuable, but it’s also used for practical purposes due to its unique physical properties; the same goes for platinum, and maybe others. How much of the price will be driven by utility, and how much by its being a medium of exchange? In previous cases, speculation, not utility, ended up as the main factor to determine the price.
Absolutely! I didn’t mean sheep to sound derogatory, I just meant that the herd moves. Obviously smart people can also take advantage of that rather than just being swept along with their sudden optimism.
These two thought processes seem contradictory to me. If adding volume and liquidity is what decreases volatility then that’s exactly what margin trading does.
People who previously could not ‘sell’ the fomo panic can now stop it from getting out of control by empowering the market to find the correct price through the added supply. With the ability to borrow coins the market can be fuelled by less restricted optimism than just holders represent. Likewise, when sellers are panicking and dump the price people can leverage even more than their pockets allow to take advantage of the oversell. All this extra activity is a good thing. That’s how markets find their prices, through people trying to skim the difference until there is none left to skim.
Not sure I understand your point here. You might need to clarify for me. Anyone can short sell if they have any asset collateral in their margin account and I can’t think of a margin market that didn’t always have plenty of coins available to short with? Shorters have and always will hold back the booms, that’s why bulls hate bears and are always praying for the short-squeeze in a boom - the short squeeze is the one blip of additional volatility that comes from margin trading imo.
I think it depends how it is done. There are so many strategies from scalping for minutes at a time to day trading or following long trends. I’m not very active in trading really, but I do short-sell bits of my own stuff when I think we’re well over retrace points. As long as you are selling well in profit and happy not to rebuy if it doesn’t drop then it’s a win-win. Obviously, trading margins and with leverage changes things a lot.
Yes agreed, that’s why enabling traders with margin short options and additional clout with leverage helps the market stabilise while people grapple to take advantage of market mispricing.
Well yes and no. I think there is one hugely important distinction. SAFEcoin is consumable, where gold is not. We’ve not had a resource-based economy based on a consumable resource since salt was currency. This is quite different to gold in many ways. Gold’s utility demand is also very low. It is used in jewellery because it is precious, not the other way around. There is in fact, more than enough gold above ground for over 5000 years of industrial demand at current levels, so really, gold ought to be cheap. The utility demand for storing and serving data is a whole other scale. It is almost ubiquitously useful and everyone can appreciate that value and make use of it directly themselves in their day-to-day lives. Actually, they will HAVE to use it and burn it if they want to store or serve data on the network, which makes the churning demand a whole different ball game to PMs really imo. If you then consider how unique access to SAFE is then the demand for it should be really high since there are no other properly comparable options to SAFE for the functionality it offers. It has lots of USPs basically.
Absolutely, but SAFEcoin is a lot more useful than gold or silver is.
Me too, it’s really fascinating because I really don’t think it compares very well to any other asset or situation in history. I don’t have any idea what will happen of course, but it is super interesting to mull over. I change my perspective on how it might play out on a weekly basis I think, but it just tends to get more positive and extreme
Just because we put bigger engines into cars, we still can’t expect drivers to turn into Schumacher magically. If anything, we’ll have more accidents. Leverage is how you amplify results, and I haven’t yet seen something that got more stable as it got faster.
What I mean is, increasing trading volume while keeping capital at the same level is not the same as an increase in trading capital, which would indeed help lower volatility. Without that, we’re just turning up the heat.
About shorting, my point was not that it can’t have some effect, but that it can’t have a big enough effect to hold back a boom. Short sellers need to borrow, which is one limitation (also, borrow is more expensive during a boom), but also they have to deal with the fact that a winning short shrinks and a losing short balloons, and that they will be squeezed at some point. Short sellers can’t be as reckless as those who only go long; those of them with a habit of fighting against strong uptrends will exit the pool. Basically, the bulls hate the bears for no good reason: they just need scapegoats so that they don’t have to face reality when they suck.
Detto This idea that the exchangieness of Safecoins can be more predominant than its utilitiness came right in the middle of writing that post. No idea how it will turn out, really.
But we aren’t just providing leverage we’re also adding liquidity with players whom otherwise could not participate. These players are the less optimistic participants in that market. They are the ones who do not hold their own long position to short sell, so must borrow to do so. If those negative traders don’t have a voice then the market will be far too positive during booms… as we see even on polo with smaller coins that aren’t on margin.
Well that’s a matter of degree. If we want a market to be less volatile then adding something that helps that (to any degree) is a good thing. Perhaps ‘holding back the booms’ was a bit hyperbolic, more like softens the blow.
Borrowing isn’t much of a limitation. Most shorts are open for very short periods, so scalpers and day traders don’t even look at or think about the interest rates on polo. Most are open for under 24 hours and most of the time borrowing is very cheap considering the volatility of the markets and %s traders can win.
This all depends on whether they trader believes the market to be a long term bull or bear. The trend is certainly your friend and most shorters tend to have little faith in the things they short.
Well, if shorters succeed they extract btc/fiat value from the coin/ecosystem, so it’s natural for bulls to want to punish bears for that and see them squeezed/liquidated so their money is added to the coin value in the buy-back rather than taken from it to the shorters pocket.
I have so many theories, many contradict, but as long as I voice them all I can claim to be right and a genius in a few years by pointing at the right ones lol
I’m not sure I fully understand you here. I can’t see how a trader’s beliefs could affect how their trades turn out, but if you meant their beliefs make them more cautious, then yea, that would help. But the main point was exactly this: the short side requires a much more careful approach than the long side, which implies its effect can also be only that big.
This implies shorting can actually move the market, which is exactly what I’m arguing against.
Shorting is by far not the equivalent of the long side: it starts out from a disadvantaged position, with a limited upside and an unlimited downside. A bad long position shrinks, a bad short position balloons. You can’t squeeze a long holder out of a position either, but the only question about the next short squeeze is how much longer until it’s here.
You can’t start a fight from such a bad position. Short sellers are not the enemy, scheming against the bulls: they can merely use the opportunities that arise naturally. Those who try to play tough won’t last long enough to make a difference.
Did I miss it or do you only talk about leveraged shorts and forget the longs? Leverage isn’t for shorts only, those pumps can only be really forceful because of highly leveraged buyers. If anything, leveraging increases volatility in both directions. Consequently, you can margin call long positions. That’s how these huge price moves (in btc, e.g.) happen.
A winning short doesn’t shrink in a bear market, it grows. If the trend is down then shorts will do better over time.
My point was that a bear can be quite reckless if he believes the market is headed down.
The fact that a market can only down by 100%, but can go up by more is not really relevant to day traders imo. It is very rare to get swings either way of really decent %s and over the time frame that margin traders usually trade I don’t think that’s relevant. In the short term traders are looking at something going up or down by a range of % over a given time period - minutes for scalpers, under 24 hours for day-traders (hence the name), and longer for other investment or trading positions. The fact that it could go up 300% but only down 100% isn’t really relevant to me if I’m scalping or day trading to try to catch 5% either way. It’s these guys who use margins more than investors - and they use leverage because they are usually shooting at smaller %s.
I don’t see how this can be true. When people started shorting Eth down from 0.03 they went hell for leather. I saw shorts of hundreds of BTC borrowed in chunks, day after day for weeks. As long as a market is big enough and you believe the trend is going down you can short the hell out of it. The only limit relates to liquidity i.e. if it is very low volume your shorts might move the price on your own and limit how much you can short it.
It sounds to me like you are looking more at the macro picture as an investor by talking about limited potential for short compared to long, which is not what I would expect from you. For an investor rather than a trader I’d agree that shorting is less interesting and has less potential for his aim of making money passively.
I disagree. In fact, I see shorts move markets every day, so I kinda know I’m right here. You can just watch the loan book in polo for a few days if you doubt it. You will see markets getting shot to pieces with borrowed money on a regular basis. When BTC booms most of the Alts selling is not from holders, it comes from shorters who think the price should now be lower to arb its fiat value. They take it down and trading continues as normal with the short able to take profit from the trading going on at the new lows.
I can’t make peace with this either I’m afraid. You are talking about these trades as if they have the capacity to get any amount of profit and loss and that just isn;t the case. People have targets they will take profits at in trading, so the upside is limited, so too do they have stop losses, and liquidation limits when they short. The upside and downside is limited by the target, not the range of possibility (that is certainly investor territory, not trading) and on any given day that can be a higher % down than up if the situation is correct.
I have been squeezed out of a few margin long positions. When BTC is booming you see how many people get squeezed out of their long positions in Alts, for fear of liquidation if BTC just keeps on going, even if you’re still bullish on the asset you hold.
Now you’re really confusing me lol. I thought I was the one saying shorters aren’t the enemy. They help the market find its price. They are not scheming against anyone, they are quite rightly taking action to take profit where they think the market is making a mistake. They can’t do that if there’s no margin trading though because they can only go long. The bad guys are futures and derivatives and HFT traders, not margins shorting with the real asset (rather than paper manipulation).
Well, there are two conversations here, margins and leverage. I think its mad to argue that margin trading doesn’t improve the market. I can’t see any rational argument to reject that idea. I think leverage makes a lot of sense, up to a point. Obviously it can also be used to manipulate a market, but generally speaking I don’t think that’s what happens. Nor do I think it causes more volatility. A long can leverage as much as any short depending on what they think will happe. The more money and the more players involved the better, smoother and more quickly the prices will resolve themselves [quote=“rand_om, post:1190, topic:9923”]
That’s how these huge price moves (in btc, e.g.) happen.
[/quote]
Perhaps in the very early days. I don’t think is at all true now for bitcoin or for any market that has reasonable volume relative to the kind of leverage traders can use… It’s not leverage causing volatility, it’s just a thin and therefore elastic market.
Anyway, I’m no expert. That’s my 2 cents. I’ve derailed enough away from talking about MAID. It would be easy enough to have this conversation over a pint, but it’s a bit exhausting typing it
It’s no different to back in the mid 90s when only a few people were really excited about the internet and most people you spoke to had all kinds of daft reasons why it was bad, or would fail, or couldn’t be of any interest or use to them.
meet someone else with the same problem 
I think some others would have tripled my coins over the years by being more self-assured.
) but on the other hand being satisfied and holding 2-3 years without touching will give crazy results imo.
for the trades you want to make. Imo, trading is so emotional 
, it just screws things up for you if you’re not prepared. Determine an amout that you will never trade with, so you’re safe 
if something goes wrong. Also always good to recognize ones feelings, like when am I FOMO’ing 
, when am I FUDding 
. And for starters, remember the pattern below - don’t fall for it, use it 
.
I think it reflects some feelings sometimes yes, muhahaha omg…
This idea that the exchangieness of Safecoins can be more predominant than its utilitiness came right in the middle of writing that post. No idea how it will turn out, really.