MaidSafeCoin (MAID) - Price & Trading topic (Part 1)

[DeusNexus]

I’ve been using a normalized price indicator and super squeeze trend of MA’s to study how trend looks without the huge logarithmic swings.

The yellow line is the super squeeze (basically an weighted index of several MA’s that produce a squeeze, the closer two MA’s are the higher 0-100%, then when majority of the squeezes are very close the super squeeze is going up to 100%, signaling a big move). Once this one starts to drop from 100% to lower values this means that the MA’s are all widening and momentum is increasing rapidly due to distance between each MA increasing.

Now the super squeeze can be at high % for a long time and that’s what we have seen with this yellow background, so what is more interesting is to find consolidation/trading patterns.

The screenshot includes Elliott wave count of this super-trend and since we have completed 5 (3 up waves) this would naturally retest (4). Since the pattern is inside a triangle which should break-out within 60 days while super squeeze is at high % and the relative price at the bottom AND increasing, momentum would favor uptrend reversal.

Take note that relative price doesn’t tell us the price, only that it is gaining strength and when to expect this to appear.

On MAID/BTC 1D:

On MAID/USD 1D:

TradingView Chart

[dask]

Not so weird. Someone bought a ton, either to hold or on spec. They disturbed the equilibrium in a lowish liquidity market. The gap was filled (in BTC), in other bases it regressed to long term VWAP and the resolution was higher prices on higher volume over a comparatively long period. The only reasons to buy that abruptly are to either accumulate an optimal amount at the price/liquidity, or to send a signal. Either way, a positive event.

[DeusNexus]

I checked upon the price which the last spike had and majority of volume was bought around 2000-1100 satoshis. Some good accumulation, the last pump was mostly because the sell orders pulled up to a high price but the whales didn’t buy there, as you can see volume is not present there. It’s mostly those people who chase the pump buy high and then in vain sell low where the liquidity is at.

So once we leave this accumulation zone the orderbook and liquidity should support increasing price and slowly push price up over the coming weeks/months.

[andreruigrok]

Thank you the great analyses

[jeremyjpj0916]

Nice to see the bump to .13 cents today. Maybe 5 cent was our bottom

[jeremyjpj0916]

@lubinew

Does anybody have a clue if some latest code development could be behind this price increase? Is this something else than just a movement back to mean? Could this be it? Did some whale just realized there will be no more MAID supply at those low prices?

I generally don’t associate price movements with technological progress. I think its just likely market flows and general sentiment.

[bridge]

Hum… It is too short point of veiw. I think the whole development process indicates that the real SAFE network is coming closely not only this weeks dev updats.

[Southside]

Buy back sharpish and take the 15-20% hit

[amaizenblue]

Seems legit, though…pretty standard volume.

[Southside]

The volume IS up, but not hugely

[amaizenblue]

ah, yeah, I see. I wasn’t looking at a chart, just based it off of what I’ve seen recently. Certainly isn’t like the pump a few weeks ago.

[andyypants]

certainly in a small market like this one person speculating on technological development can make a big difference. I think we might be carrying as much of that as we ever will though. To really see some big movement we need to see people actually engaging use cases and building hype. I mean I know there is strong sentiment that just getting the product out will result in gains, but I disagree with the crowd here. The big gains will come from marketing marketing marketing.

[andyypants]

I would contend the crypto bubble was not caused by the tech though. It was caused by media hype and people that just want to buy some kind of digital gold bar and sell it for more. I don’t think the majority (at least the majority of later investors) were like yep this technology is worth X. In fact, there were many people like me that didn’t even understand the tech at first, but still wanted to buy in. What they were thinking mostly is just there is this hype and I want to jump on the bandwagon.

[bridge]

I am really sure, it is maybe impossible to boost up maidsafecoin by traditional crypto marketing.

Only showing the working end product is last key for maidsafe.

The software tells everything end product. People use Chrome because of high speed not marketing. And the “Web” is the most powerful marketing tool, and maidsafe has “web”. Then, what marketing do you want ?

[andyypants]

well its not like it’s either one or the other. Lets look at 4 scenarios:

1. No good product + no sales skills = hardly anyone will buy
2. good product + no sales skills = some people that really do their own research will buy
3. No product + sales skills = lol well we have all seen this can work sometimes, and this is usually the most hated salesperson
4. Good product + sales skills = parabolic demand levels

The product is coming and we are all cheering on the dev team to do their end of this. The big question mark to me right now is if we can we be in that number 4 category rather then number 2. IMO we are talking about orders of magnitude of price difference depending which one we fall into.

[DeusNexus]

I don’t want to tease but MAIDUSD looks pretty sexy on large timeframe, it broke up a wedge we have been in since ATH and completed what appears to be an ABC correction.
If development comes nicely together with price movement this could sustain price nicely and create a so-called harmonic pattern to 50 cents.

Just note that these are just trading guidelines. 17 August would be a similar time range compared to last uprun from A to B and is also therefor we could expect the price to rally more upcoming weeks/months.

As always, just do your own research, these patterns can be easily looked up online and confirmed, nothing too fancy or complex.

[amaizenblue]

Another thing to keep in mind about this situation is that people, in general, are highly skeptical of someone being able to pull off a project like this…even the ones that are, on paper, “easier” like the storage coins that they lump SAFE in with. There have been many peripherally related projects that have come around and failed. And let’s not forget the “Silicon Valley” TV show jokes.

The point is, the functional integrity of the product is going to have to win people over before marketing will have much effect at all. Moreso, imo, than typical products that come to market. We aren’t entering a market with null sentiment, but one that is already negatively biased.

That isn’t to say marketing should be ignored…heck, snakeoil salesmen advertise their stuff, too, and make sales…it’s just that it will be harder to sell rational people to start out with…until the functionality proves itself.

[dask]

It will have to be a working product that demonstrates the distributed network, the UX, and the coin before the train starts. It will be a slower thing than some hope though… A big part of the sell will be the ‘unstoppable network’, and quite frankly it will have to run stably for a while before people will trust the tech with any significant data/value. First MVP means devs can come and see, but the real boom doesn’t happen until all the major pieces have been working without glitch for a long while, and incremental updates do not take down the network.

[bridge]

Let’s talk about some more deep.

Do you understand What is TCP/IP protocol and landering process when you access Internet and use browers like Chrome? Absolutely not, we use Internet because this network is the most biggest and decentralized network(This give us incentives) not because of marketing.

I am sure 99% people didnt understand what is Bitcoin(Sha256, private and public key, consensus etc). But they buy it because almost whole exchange accept Bitcoin and the price votality and it is the first blockchain base coin and the most famous coin. AND This kinds of reasons dont raise from marketing from BTC devs. The holders and exchange business field employees do marketing for their PROFIT.

So, I think if maidsafe has the enough potential to overcome TCP/IP protocol based network; Internet. We dont need marketing plan, because users and data will come from Internet.

And If SAFEnetwork will work as well like Bitcoin. The business players on SAFE web like gamble, payment, code git etc will advertise their business and SAFE for their profit same as exchanges.

[Sotros25]

That’s quite a lot of (misplaced) faith in human rationality. Projects from Substratum to Ethereum prove your theory very wrong. Substratum raised a lot of money and built a strong following on empty hype. Ethereum positioned itself as the go to smart contracting platform into which people trusted and lost millions due to coding errors (and let’s not forget the infamous ETH/ETC schism).

What we know about humanity is that most people are swayed by stories (I.e. marketing) with which they resonate. Data shows (ironically) that people (sadly) are not really moved or persuaded by data and fact. In fact, if you present someone with data that disproves their position, on average, they’ll just double down on that erroneous position.

Nevertheless, I like data; I like fact; I like expertise. So, for all those who profess to know how to sell a project: what is your technical background and expertise, and where is your data and fact?

I’ll start first: I began my career as a brand strategist for one of the largest ad agencies in the world. I then went on to work as a general manager (with, among other things, sales and marketing responsibilities) at a multi-billion dollar company. From there I joined a premiere management consulting firm where I continued to deliver on marketing and general strategy (e.g. growth, new product, procurement, org design, etc.). I currently manage strategy and innovation (I.e. within marketing) for tech products in a fortune 100 company. From nonprofits to startups to fortune 100 enterprises, I have seen and know what works when it comes to product promotion. It isn’t rocket science nor is it the dark arts. It’s discipline to carry out basic principles in creative ways.

Obviously, as an ethical fact, the answer should never be to market vapor ware, but is that what we think SAFE is? I submit: no. Marketing SAFE is to market the opportunity to engage in building an optimized, more free future. SAFE is just as much a social cause as it is a technical product. SAFE endeavors to build a future we desperately need, and warrants the support to do so.

By the way, those who erroneously spout that the Internet achieved mass adoption for factors other than marketing clearly don’t understand A) history (hint: a lot of money was and still is shelled into marketing consumer use of the Internet) and B) what marketing is (hint: it’s about more than ads and promotions). But, what’s the point in belaboring this point b/c see above…how many actually care about data and fact rather than their feelings, gut instincts, and what’s comfortable?