Nah, won’t happen. Torrents have proven this is essentially impossible. To me (from a purely price perspective) the only regulatory risk is the exchanges being shut out. This is not a statement about the capacities or abilities of regulators, this is about the concrete technological aspects of the network.
I’m still completely confident the network will be delivered. So why only 5% chance of wild success? Probably that’s a bit too low, but 5% would mean going 100x current market cap. If I picked a bigger number, like 80%, we’d need to consider 2000x current market cap (or more). I’m not able to accept such extreme disparity between an imagined reality of 200,000% change and the ‘real’ reality which we have (mainly due to information asymmetry). So 5% it is. 5% is me conceding that maybe the market knows better than the speculators; I’m not so certain that I can simply ignore the crowd.
As I said, this is the first time I’ve put numbers to it, so I could have picked any number. Price speculation is not like the technology, where latency is a fact of physics and growth follows a relatively physics based trajectory. Speculation is not for me. I remember at the first bitcoin meetup I attended people were saying $1000 is a wildly and unimaginably successful future. That was 100x the price at the time, and bitcoin has obviously far surpassed that (peaking at 2000x that early price point). So 2000x is not unheard of.
As a related aside, my current economic interests are mostly to do with non-convexities (especially how they apply to externalities).