If there are people consistently beating the average and it is over randomness over a long period, there might have some validity of it. Usually their net results is below average and worse than random.
You see, you can throw coins 10 times and get 9 heads in a row. But the longer you play it, the results ends up approximating to the actual probability of 50/50.
That’s why it is needed a longitudinal study to see if the supposed results are simply a bias due to the lack of enough sampling.
But those who typically have an edge are the ones feeding strategies to bots, not human traders.
There is a huge difference between technical analysis and quantitative analysis, and it makes sense that an evidence-based technique outperforming one that is solely based on hunches and memory biases.
Could be the pump was actually linked to greater awareness due to the conference. Lots of new eyes could have been on the project over there in the build up… some may have thought get in quick. So could be here to stay.
Lots of could and mays I know
Price action is very different in the last couple months. The pattern is a spike in price and volume in a thirty or so minute time frame then consolidation over several days or more. This is very different from last year during the pump and dump days. To me, these look like new investors buying and holding. I am guessing we will see more in the next days after this conference.
In the world of investments and startups, the money flowing into Maidsafe lately is chump change. The market for Maid in Poloniex is so thin still, 5 btc moves it noticeably.
Recently, I have several friends who have gone thru the process, from the beginning, of opening an account in Kraken, buying btc, transferring to Poloniex to buy Maid. It has/is taking them minimum of two weeks. For the average person, investing in crypto is a pain in the ass!!
Btw, new account volume on the btc exchanges is way up…
Well the correction keeps occurring. The question is if it will stop at 15000 like I guessed earlier or correct further down. There is a lot of downward pressure right now and it could go a lot lower.
It truly is not a problem for those of us who are holding because we know that in due time it will be worth so much more than it is now. but it will give an opportunity for those people wishing to hold more MAID to get some while its cheaper.
Well, I’m not sure I’d call this a ‘correction’ of the previous jump so much as ‘reaction’ to BTC atm. BTC is pumping, causing trader migration, the short-term profit is in BTC today. It may well be back in MAID in a day or two. No one wants to miss being on the BTC rocket when it finally breaks resistance/gold parity because it will probably jump quite a lot quite quickly. MAID will/is over-reacting downwards in the panic as traders try to take new positions, how far it goes depends on what BTC does rather than how high MAID was previously at this point imo.
If BTC breaks 1oz gold parity it will get a load of mainstream press, then anything could happen . We could easily see sub 10k maids again briefly. Although, as you say, those of us with slightly more long-term goals are not worried by any price changes at this stage.
I feel less panicked than any other time of downward pressure, even with the BTC hype. Maybe it’s because BTC already hit 1oz gold parity in the past. And there could be the argument that it’ll just break past it now. But if you think about it, BTC was made to be digital gold exactly… so why would it go higher? That could be just me not seeing beyond, but I still feel like it’ll merely stay where it is. I.e. BTC won’t go back down now, potentially, because it did that in 2013, but it won’t go up, either. BTC still has its technical problems.
And SAFE is just on the horizon, no matter how still “distant” it technically is.
tl;dr don’t be saying such depressing words! “A lot lower” “Sub 10k” lol I wouldn’t even dream of it.
It’s not depressing As Neo says if it falls under 10k it just represents another great buying opportunity.
There is still no safecoin. Until there is a ‘useful’ coin the holder token will be crazy volatile. It doesn’t reflect badly in any way that we could see some sub 10k prices again, especially as they could be over 12-15c in that range if BTC carries on rising.
BTC has never broken gold parity before, although it has come close. If it does it will get a lot of media buzz and it will rise more based on that buzz alone, so we will see some quick gains.
Lower prices don’t depress me, they provide more opportunities, not fewer. The only thing that matters is the tech - the value will follow. The price is just an indicator of speculator positions, what they are speculating on is far more interesting than where they have parked their money today imo.
As some bright spark once said, trade the story, not the price
I don’t understand anything more from BTC. Investment fund calculators say it will go 3600+/- $ if winklevos ETF gets approval but on the other hand there is no future because of the classic/core/unlimited debacle. And it doesn’t look there will come a solution at all I’ve read last week.
So the network can’t handle more transaction… No segwit no nothing.
Interesting to see things evolve this year.
BTC can be different things and it does feel confusing with so many different stories playing out at the same time.
It can’t become a proper payment network without scaling. It can still be a great store of value with slow and expensive transactions though. Look at gold. It is not accepted by most merchants as currency and it is generally expensive to trade and transport, but it is still worth a lot more than its industrial value because folks use it to store their wealth.
Even if BTC never solves the scaling issue it could still hit $10k+ a coin as a simple, convenient store of value with no counterparty risk. The ETF, gold parity, scaling, regulations… these all have different impacts on different aspects of what bitcoin ‘could’ turn into. I don’t think any of them are really essential on their own for price jumps though. Especially not from such a small market cap… $17bn is still tiny.
So basically I strongly agree with your last sentence.
What happens this year and next year will probably define what Bitcoin will end up becoming. And it’s still really hard to predict imo!
We are still at 18 cents… What’s all the commotion about? Sure the sat price is less because btc has risen but we are pretty stable against the dollar.
Edit: personally I would not want it pegged to BTC so if btc rises it is only natural that it will draw red candles in a MAID/BTC chart.
You wouldn’t even dream of sub 10k?
Well… MAID hit a high of 29k during the MVP hype and slumped to a sub 10k.
It hit a high of 24k, with the Alpha announcement, before it slumped to a little over 7k.
So, now that we’re well lower already, what makes you so optimistic we won’t hit another record low?
I’m not entirely convinced that the rise of the BTC represents a danger to the value of other crypto, MAID included. It might do, or it might not.
I remember how during the 2013 peak, all crypto shot up along the rise of the BTC. As if the mighty Bitcoin dragged it along. Back then Litecoin hit a high of more than $40.
We saw similar action in the past months. For some reason, sometimes, the altcoin market seems coupled to the BTC and sometimes it bleeds as if to feed the rise of the Bitcoin.
Imo, as long as there is no huge flaw in Bitcoin like they found in Zcoin couple days ago, it will inevitably go way more up. It’s working so well, and it’s so secure with the high hashing power.
The Segwit/Lightning/BU shenanigans aren’t a huge problem, because Lightning can likely be implemented without segwit and if that doesn’t work for some reason, there’s other ways to improve scalability. Nobody’s thinking about it because it’s all focused on BU/Core atm.
But we’re still in a pump and dump, don’t expect too much of MAID yet. @altpath, don’t rush. Especially if you have bitcoins already. I’m waiting for what will happen in the next weeks. If Bitcoin does indeed go up even further, and MAID goes down because of it and the dump scheme, you’re gonna be very happy For me it’s hard to imagine it the other way round really.
. We could easily see sub 10k maids again briefly. Although, as you say, those of us with slightly more long-term goals are not worried by any price changes at this stage.
