……
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Feels like it would be more pertinent to know what the coins that hit the top 100 between March 2016 and January 2018 and also include those same parameters that you set. I think not trying to look at it exclusively through the lens of a bull run cycle would be a mistake. I’m not sure if that would change the multiples up or down but it at least puts you in the same area we are now. Also there needs to be adjusted value for where a particular project was at that point. If memory serves me, ethereum for instance launched around that point with working product, while cardano was just hope. Not sure if I’m correct in what I’m saying but it feels like those are reasonable thresholds.
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Anyone knows about this article?
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I added these two additional filters. This leaves 58 coins.
The new quartile range for price increase is between 9x to 129x (ie 50% of coins are in this window, 25% had less than 9x increase, 25% had more than 129x increase).
The median was 39x increase.
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Just need to 4.5x to reach ATH. Although going sideways now would be better than going up imo.
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I better post about the motivation for looking into coinmarketcap history of price increases… It was originally inspired by this
How likely is MAID to reach $600?
If it were to go from a low of $0.10 to a high of $600 that’s a 6000x increase.
The coinmarketcap historical data has 18 of 616 coins with an increase of this large or more. That gives us about a 2.9% chance of reaching that degree of increase (just by the stats, ignoring any external context or quality factors).
If we take it from the price today of around $0.20 that’s a 3000x increase, which has been achieved by 33 of 616 coins, giving about a 5.3% chance.
I guess with increases this large it’s sorta not that meaningful to talk about the odds, but my goal is not to give a definite concrete answer, just to update the understanding from ‘less understanding’ to ‘more understanding’.
Overall the risk:reward seems pretty decent to me from these numbers.
To look some other odds:
$10 = 100x increase = 134/616 coins achieved it = 21% chance
$3 = 30x increase = 187/616 coins achieved it = 30% chance
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Ethereum made x10000 at its peak, I think Safe can handle it much better 
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Great stuff, @mav - keep it coming! 
I think this sort of analysis helps us to comprehend just how large the increases have been in past cycles. It sounds crazy, it sounds mad, but it happened multiple times over the last decade.
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If there is a working test net showing some basic but functional features then then this only makes the chance of a larger increase hugely more likely
You are talking only about the chances of 10x, 100x, 1000x increase. Once you reach a certain marketcap what are the chances that such marketcap would still be the same after certain preiod of time lets say 6-12months. How many coins, once reached absurd increase actually had same price after several months. What are chances then?
I see what your saying that a lot of the crazy gains are temporary but with projects such as safe then the crazy gains will be long lived if signs are shown of a working product
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Well. All BS aside, it is me saying what most people here do not wanna hear and people trying to punish me for that. And me having a blast. I just 5usd sober broke into a 600usd party when all attendees were already drunk.
Their neocortex out of order, they let the good old animal that bites out. I shot it. What now? Animal rights crowd. There are people who understand the context, and there is the SAFE police.
I mean, I have seen it before and I like experiencing it myself. Intellectual dishonesty, idiotic self-projection, gentle cowardice, self-defense falsely branded as unnecessary whatever, reason (since we are being positive, Traktion, mav, Antifragile…), the entity named Audity who is an entire universe for himself. It is all good. We are just another Bosch painting. Scratch the one you hate, somebody else is gonna do that job anyway.
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Thank you. That should provide an interesting base, without adding subjective value.
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This project is going places no tech has gone before. So it has to listen to comments its not expecting to hear before. How can we promote freedom when everyone is expected to cheer with no opinions. Anyone has anything to say just say it. No need to get personal or anything. Its an opinion. Positive or otherwise 
peace be upon all and the network 
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I take it as an all-time 3000x increase in those 33 coins of 616? Also an all-time 6000x increase in those 18? But we started at, say, 0.012-0.013? Reaching 600 would require a 41kx increase then. Would it be unprecedented?
Without hurting anyones feelings, I just hope to serendipitously tiptoe around the fact it would be a near-unprecedented giant total leap in price? Therefore that 600 usd estimate really was, uh, incredibly daring to begin with? Sounds relatively innocuous to me.
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To be honest, I remember years ago ppl saying they expected the coin not to rise above the price of storage costs.
While I thought that pessimistic I never argued as they ould be correct.
Let’s be honest, x10 is still good profit and easily doable, x 100 also easily doable and very good profit.
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I agree. I think 2018 undersold us (I already said what I think were the main reasons). I also like idea of the early investors and long time holders getting rich, but the greedy toads only tasting a bit, but having to work on it to get bigger. I think it is fair. I also suspect some of these people would not handle a sudden overabundance of money too well. I understand it is none of my business if they, intentionally or not, end up hurting others or themselves, but the world where some people like some people suddenly turn into billionaires for hushing people like me on this board is not the world I dream of. I would not feel safe. And hey, we all can dream.
So to me, 600 is not only unreasonable, but also a scary proposition.
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How many of those coins were valued based on an already proven blockchain technology at the start of their valuations?
Perhaps our calculations in comparison should start with the token price at the time of a working network/stable test network proving that the tech works.
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This is actually kinda spot on, although I hate to admit it. There is a potential danger of the miracle and us successfully setting a new standard and people going bananas and shooting us up to the moon in apogeum, in a manner that cannot be projected by simple statistics.
Again, can you imagine some of these people turning into billionaires? A scary proposition. So as long as we remain a grey mouse or at least a Cinderella among blockchain peons, I remain relatively calm.
And who knows the people here? Just because you’ve read someone’s opinion doesn’t mean you know what kind of person they are …
I don’t see anything wrong with most of the people in this Safe community become millionaires and billionaires. The very fact that we have chosen to speculate on something that fights for all of humanity makes us fit for it.
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