MaidSafeCoin (MAID & eMAID) - Price & Trading topic (Part 2)

[anon28980808]

This is not about hostility or even me not being bullish. MAID is all I buy lately. This is more of a spillover from our last non-conversation. Waveman obviously has some unsaid stuff on his mind.

I watched people get pee pee slapped for not being Yippee and Hoorray for every thousand bucks a MAID promise randomly thrown together on this board, and it took me just a couple of posts to become one of them.

And I like it! The more MAID I have, the more I like too zoom out and see this community for what it is and maybe even lick the bitter side of it. Why not?

[waveman352]

I was not the one who initiated the hostility. Just like everyone else I gave an opinion for the $600 price target, provided my reasoning for it and instead of be hospitable as suggested he wrote this back to my comment. [quote=“Fruico, post:104, topic:32970”]
I think it is safer not to read any further. Because…

I think it is utterly foolish to predict MAID/Safe Coin/Safe Token/Whatever-moniker-we-go by price based on what the next 5 years of bitcoin price movement could be, because predicting bitcoin (a proven product) price movement in itself is lottery. I mean, one, not exactly obscure guy should just eat his own joy and pride thanks to his daring, overly-enthusiastic outlook on what price btc should be targeting and when.
[/quote]

If you’re going to fire off a bullet and but don’t like to be fired at then you shouldn’t have drawn first blood.

For the record I have absolutely zero issue with anyone predicting any price target especially if they have reasoning behind it. I do however to offense to having my rational mocked because they don’t like my opinion. In this particular case you are putting in the blame to the wrong party sir.

[anon28980808]

There was nothing that hostile about that particular piece. That was my way of saying predicting Btc price in itself almost cost John McAfee his penis.

I like that part the most.

Me calling you a greedy toad was slightly hostile – towards toads.

[hamarana]

Hey maits, I am really surprised here at this!

[Sotros25]

@anon28980808

To satisfy your curiosity, Sotros.

600 bucks a crumble, just for you.

There you have it folks: @anon28980808, while still cranky, believes MAID’s NPV to be $600. He said it, not me

In all honesty though, it seems people often use negativity to shield themselves from daring and getting hurt. I believe in taking a balanced, reasoned approach. However, positivity on the whole tends to be more constructive.

[zeroflaw]

Seems like all the selling at 25 cents has stopped. Guess the rest of the holders want more than 25 cents to let go of their precious. Onwards to 31.99999999 cents.

[Traktion]

@anon28980808

@Traktion

that bitcoin is likely to go up by many multiples, likely dragging the rest of the market up with it.

It may, or it may not. No quick way up there for us anyway. That ship has sailed. And MAID will not get back up there until we launch, if it ever does.

What ship has sailed? Bitcoin goes up, drags new money into the crypto space, which then disperses to other projects over time. We’ve seen this repeat over and over.

If BTC goes up 5-10x, I would expect MAID to at least make 2-3x, just to retain some sort of parity.

[Traktion]

@andyypants

I was going to stay out of this game to predict the release price but now I feel the need to counterbalance these other extremely optimistic predictions haha. I am gonna say 1 dollar. That’s still a big move up from where we are now but doesn’t count on suddenly traders go crazy buying it. That is the target for the situation I described above where we gradually have actual users trickle in and buy the small amount they need for their use case.

1 dollar? We were on a third of that after a good dev update and some fresh binaries. Don’t you think that’s a little pessimistic relative to a working, launched, network? I’d more likely expect a dollar for a working test net, than a production network, based on recent market activity.

[Audity]

Just want to give a shout out to myself for being the original Shill that started it all. Thanks, me, for giving all other shills the confidence they need to make outlandish predictions into the thousands. (Just kidding. …I’m sure there are others that shilled around the same time…!)
…
[Obviously I can poke fun at myself for being ‘a shill’, especially when I was all about Gamercoin or whatever that crap was; I even had someone in a small chat room of jokesters-I-somewhat-knew half- jokingly say “no shilling”, after I rambled a bit about it, which was a nice wake-up call to let me know how silly I can be. Also-obviously, despite all that, I can still believe the most in Maidsafe given their history of pure perseverance. I try to be wary of intermediary price points that take awhile before magically going “above Bitcoin”, though it would be nice to get a fairly quick huge bump in price at whatever point things really start heating up around here.]

Interestingly, the top 5 crypto all have significantly less market cap than Bitcoin. So it’s more a matter of getting a spot nesting up to that 1-5 billion market cap before taking over the current Internet naturally. There should be a point where the technology just clicks with all the techies, by feeling more and more and more “proven”—which is then likely when investors begin to reflect reality. Then it’s marketing, marketing, marketing, and more marketing. And then more marketing… Mario Bros. 3 marketing levels, even.

[anon28980808]

It is refreshing to read something not-that-serious for once. Demagogy or not.

@Sotros25

In all honesty though, it seems people often use negativity to shield themselves from daring and getting hurt. I believe in taking a balanced, reasoned approach. However, positivity on the whole tends to be more constructive.

I believe this is a good example of perception shift a long stay in an echo chamber can lead to. Pointing out things may not turn out the way a kid in us wishes for and that we may have to settle for a little less to begin with is understood as negativity. In this context, I believe being truly negative would lead to a ban.

And while I agree that negativity can often serve as a prevention against disappointment, in this particular case, I try to protect myself from having to read whining from disappointed people who got carried away and start being really, truly negative once the expected miracle fails to turn up.

I also think that you believe any expression of doubt sends a wrong message to the people potentially looking in from the outside.

I on the other hand think that your meticulous effort to silence any doubt and depict any expression of realism or skepticism as harmful to the project is what sends the wrong message of insecurity and very, very deep doubt. Plus dishonesty of course.

@Traktion

If BTC goes up 5-10x, I would expect MAID to at least make 2-3x, just to retain some sort of parity.

Look, I have seen bitcoin gain steam, leaving the alts in the dust. I have seen alts growing in price and bitcoin dropping. I have seen all scenarios possible. But if you talk about the “long-term” pattern we have been witnessing for a couple of years and exactly three halvings, that is not a solid base for a price projection. Things repeat only until they do not. And I sense people who just take the repetition for granted are bound to get surprised.

But most importantly:

@Traktion

If BTC goes up 5-10x, I would expect MAID to at least make 2-3x, just to retain some sort of parity.

Just to retain parity? So MAID is this living organism that, once in a while, sees through the haze of the echo chamber it locked itself in and goes: “hodl it, not so fast, where do you think you are going with that?! I need to retain some parity! Be fair, be correct, be equal! Wait for me before I catch on you selfish bastard!”

Now could you please email maid and ask him how has retaining parity been going since, uh, december 2016?

Because we were exactly there a couple of months ago still. I think our project reached the state of perpetual failure to retain the parity. Next stop? Data!

Maybe I go too far with this, but the points is the recent increase in price seems to have a whole lot to do with a community member who did not get disparaged by lukewarm consent from folks who are too focused on launch and have no in-house experience with erc-20 and the fact these folks are really focused on launch and seem to be putting it together – than anything Btc did.

That is why I think Bitcoin will not drag us anywhere. It has not been dragging us anywhere for years. Just my two cents, for which you can still buy a decent piece of MAID.

[Traktion]

Of course, there is no guarantee, but the rising bitcoin tide tends to lift all the boats. People come in to bitcoin, then start looking at alts.

Sure, there is no guarantee all boats will be lifted equally, but given many of them trade only in BTC pairs, it is often the default position.

Since the BTC market turned bullish, alts have tended up too. I don’t think this is an extreme views, it is observable. Even MAID did well in the last boom, even if other coins did far better relatively.

[Nigel]

@anon28980808

I believe this is a good example of perception shift a long stay in an echo chamber can lead to.

Pretty sure @Sotros25 works in the crypto industry or parallel to it? So though she may believe in the team and vision (like most of us on this forum almost every day or at least quite often, including you) and pulls weight around here (not just an ordinary observer) it doesn’t mean she doesn’t have perspective, especially given her professional standpoint. I feel as though your opinion is becoming quite pointed and assuming.

I get you think you’re saving people from disappointment by throwing a damp blanket on what you see as people’s raging expectations but they are just speculative projections. If we want to save everyone from disappointment then let’s just make a disclaimer.

INVESTING IN CRYPTOCURRENCY IS RISKY. NEVER SELL YOUR CHILDREN OR HOME TO PURCHASE SPECULATIVE INVESTMENTS. ANY PRICE PROJECTIONS PROVIDED IN THIS THREAD ARE NOT GUARANTEED AND ARE NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE!!!

[cecil353912]

Hi all!
I am from USA.
Where are you guys buying and selling to BTC or another big crypto.
Thanks

[waveman352]

You’re being too kind, he doesn’t think he’s saving anyone from anything, he’s either just stirring the pot or thinks his experience is superior which based on the people who reply regularly on this forum, whether it be a technical background or a finance background, he is superior in neither.

I do want to piggyback what you wrote from a similar angle though. I’ve been a trader and investor for 17 years in many different asset classes. If he would like to make fun of my predictions or my level of skill, I’m fine with that. It felt very much unnecessary to make a smart ass retort @Sotros25 earlier today as it is obvious that she is not only knowledgeable and well versed in both technicals and finance but provides a massive amount of high level knowledge to the forum and project and deserves that respect.

[Nigel]

@waveman352

it is obvious that she is not only knowledgeable and well versed in both technicals and finance but provides a massive amount of high level knowledge to the forum and project and deserves that respect.

Dido. Probably what bothered me most. I have a pessimistic uncle that considers himself a realist and it is no better a perspective than an optimist. They both have their pros and cons and are more likely viewpoints that help individuals cope with hardships or challenges so I don’t want to attack him for his perspective but I don’t want to see others attacked on theirs either. Whether he thinks they are unrealistic or not it’s unnecessary to piss on peoples inner fires or make pointed comments.

[waveman352]

Well said. Sometimes it’s hard for people to find the line between real and just being unhelpful and rude.

[Nigel]

simpleswap.io has been recommended a few times so far and just giving it a glimpse myself, it looked like a good option @cecil353912

[cecil353912]

Thank You! Will be testing this tonight. Will let you know how it goes

[mav]

Looking at coinmarketcap historical data, I was interested in what sort of price increase might be considered normal.

The answer is: between 2.5x to 63x price increase.

How did these numbers come about?

The coinmarketcap historical snapshots are taken once a week starting end of April 2013 up until now (397 weeks worth of data). Each snapshot contains the top 200 coins for that week.

Since the coins in the top 200 change week by week, there’s a total of 1699 coins that appear at some point in the data.

Some coins are meaningless and are ignored. I’ve filtered out any coins with less than 10 weeks in the top 200, or less than 1M USD total trade volume, or a lowest price less than 0.0001 USD. This filters out 1083 coins, leaving us with 616.

Of the remaining coins, the largest price increase is calculated (if we calculate the maximum / minimum price we might accidentally be calculating the largest decrease in price, so we only look for price increases).

From this, the median was found to be 6.9x increase. Half the coins had more than 6.9x as their biggest price increase, half the coins had less.

More meaningful is the quartiles. Half the coins had between 2.5x to 63x increase, the other half of the coins had an increase outside that range.

We can also look at percentiles, the 10th percentile gives a range of increases between 1.5x to 904x (10% of coins had less than 1.5x increase and 10% had more than 904x increase).

These price increases happened over various periods. The first and third quartiles for duration was 42 to 406 days (ie half of all coins increased between that amount of time, the other half of the coins took less or more time for their increase). The median duration was 147 days.

MAID’s biggest increase in price was 96x, from $0.012 on 2014-05-11 to $1.16 on 2018-01-07. So MAID had an unusually large increase in price compared to other coins. The time between these two prices was 1337 days.

BTC records start a bit later than the first traded coins, but for the available time period the largest increase in price was 256x, from $74.56 on 2013-07-07 to $19140.76 on 2017-12-17 which is a period of 1624 days.

There’s so many ways to analyse this, not sure if I’ve approached it in a suitable way, but I figure it’s gotta be better than just guessing.

If we were to arbitrarily take the recent MAID low point of $0.10 we’d expect a 50:50 chance of a future price increase to somewhere between $0.25 to $6.30

Here’s the historical data and calculated price increases: 17.19 MB folder on MEGA