Does this practicing chart of mine make any sense to you all?
EDIT: I tried to make my chart a bit clearer and removed the NDX comparison line.
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The orange line has such a long period that it would have little practical meaning left even if it expressed something real underlying it (I can see little evidence it would do so by the way).
I’m not sure if the labels are supposed to be uncovering something predictive or if they are just fyi. If the former, then I’d say it’s probably a bad idea to trying to generalize from a single past example.
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It is interesting but at the same time, I don’t think there are real dollars somewhere stored to back up their claim of the $11+ million it states their stable coin is worth, like for instance is the case with Paxos USD. What is your opinion about that?
There are no real dollars. The 12h avg dollar price is tracked by an Oracle, the algorithm controls the supply just like other rebase tokens. Then there is safety net called xbond that should prevent dropping it too much (which happens with other algo stable coins).
So yeah, it needs trust and fanboys. But that’s the case with 99% of all coins out there.
It seems to work
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The orange line is the NASDAQ 100 index. I haven’t really thought about that at all, except I think, if the stock market crashes, so will bitcoin at this stage.
What I’m trying to see is whether the bull runs after the halvings might behave similarly. Of course, there is very little data. But I noticed that the previous ATH was reached 6 months after the halving. Nine months after the halving, the halving price had doubled. I’m just wandering whether investor psychology might be similar this time around. It looks like the upward trend is steeper and longer after each halving.
I haven’t taken a single economics course in my life. I’m really just playing around. I don’t even know how to share the dynamic chart, instead of just the picture. But thanks for your reply!
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I agree. I think once this happens it will be the last time. From that point on BTC will decouple from the NASDAQ.
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I see, I thought it was derived from the BTC price. I’m not sure if bitcoin would crash with other things since it has very little connection to them. That may actually mean a NASDAQ crash could make BTC a choice of escape for a few people from there. It wouldn’t have to be many people either since the bitcoin market cap isn’t exactly comparable to the whole of NASDAQ. You may still be entirely correct though.
I think that’s trying to get out much information from a few easily observable events. What are the odds that those few have such an outsized effect v.s. the 99% other events we can’t so readily observe?
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I think the bitcoin market cap is still composed of “extra money” or “pocket change”. For some it’s a hundred dollars, for others it’s a million. If the stocks crash, there will be much less “extra money”. This may change in time, and theoretically something like bitcoin could become a world reserve currency and whatnot, but we’re far from that yet. By the way, I edited my chart above a bit.
Like I said, I’m really no economist, so I don’t even know what is usually considered an “event”. Looking at charts is a bit like playing a computer game to me. It’s cold and dark outside, so I don’t feel like doing anything useful there.
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Actually, Plan B’s stock to flow model doesn’t seem to be that far from Sascha’s chicken model. 
https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1342849642531328001?s=20
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The problem with these models is that they are based on unrealistic assumptions: that the past was generated by a particular rule that a) they recognized and b) will stay the same in the future too. If either of these is wrong the whole thing falls apart – and it’s more than likely that the second one is wrong.
There are always enough of these models floating around that it’s almost impossible that there wouldn’t be some who match what happens by sheer luck. There’s little benefit in trying to predict anything financial unless you can find enough fools willing to pay you for it.
P.S. as an exercise (or for fun) it may be worth looking up similar predictions from a few years back and see how they fared
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Lucky predictors draw crowds of fools. And those crowds can in turn form trends. It’s good to be aware of where crowds and trends are going. Influential predictors can come up with self-fulfilling prophecies. Obviously, I’m not one of those. But I don’t think I’m a fool either.
EDIT:
Three days left to vote or change your vote on the poll. 
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That’s a great assumption that many made but few tested. Now, will you want to risk your money on an assumption or on something you verified?
I suppose it’s the latter since you’re no fool. But then, is there really nothing better than running with predictions that supposedly draw crowds and become self-fulfilling? Does that assumption lend itself to easy verification? I don’t know about you but I have no idea how I would go about it.
Still, let’s say you managed to verify your assumption and it turns out to be correct. That’s still just the first step because now you need to turn this knowledge into an investment or trading strategy. How will you pick out of the thousands of such predictions the few that will have the necessary impact to become self-fulfilling? Are you gonna wait for the signs of the effect they have on the price? I’m not sure what else you could do to be honest.
However, would (could) those signs be any different than what you would look for if you wanted to pick a good investment without knowing the underlying cause? I strongly suspect it’s a no (partly because all signs are so weak in the markets that we have very little to work with in the first place). But then, does it matter whether the signs you’re looking for are caused by a self-fulfilling prediction or not?
Why, thank you!
I have absolutely no idea about what’s going to happen to crypto prices. Like I said, I’m really just playing “computer games”. “That dragon looks dangerous, but maybe it’s an ally in disguise. Hmm. Let’s go talk to it, but keep the healing potions ready.”
EDIT: For fear of sounding like I’m just taking the safest route by not saying anything, I will say this. I do own a bit of crypto, and my biggest worry is a traditional stock market crash, that I believe will take bitcoin down with it.
No secret that I never liked Ripple, from the start is was an oddity and not really in keeping with cryptocurrencies… drawing suckers in to float an exchange token, it seemed clear the only benefit would be to large institutional early adopters.
I see 7d ticking XRP 59.73% down…
SEC will charge Ripple, CEO Brad Garlinghouse and co-founder Chris Larsen with conducting an “unregistered, ongoing digital asset securities offering.”
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Where is btc heading to? Seems to be beating everyones predictions on the speed of this upward movement, 100k before end of january?
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Looks like SIA is having a good day!
A good day indeed…
Just the 130% 24h rise for daft DOGE too…
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How visible are we in Asia?
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Looks like Bitcoin is going to follow Stock to Flow ratio to reach 60k level and more with some higher peak.