Luxembourg sovereign wealth fund 1% btc allocation.
I dont think the BTC chart got the memo today ![]()
Yesterday, we saw another crash on the crypto market. On Thursday, American bitcoin-based ETFs recorded net outflows of $867 million, which is the second largest result in history.
The main reason for the decline in crypto was the liquidation of long positions (betting on price increases) worth $968 million, which means that investors using leverage are incurring huge losses, which are becoming a catalyst for declines.
Haha, what a bull market.
If aliens came to earth just to get some bitcoin the market would still tank.
Bring back the Island boys and SBF, this blackrock bs didn’t work out ![]()
Are you saying if the 2% chance on Polymarket happens it will not help crypto rally?
I am still holding on for dear life to the notion that we have not left an extended bear cycle.
Rolex’s on private jets, C grade celebrity coins, my inlaws asking should we buy bitcoin, all of that signals bull to me. All I see is despair.
The most common retail asking should I buy is always a sell signal to me. Poor people simply remain poor as the rich exit on them.
Indeed, top is here or near. But we had none of it. Not that I have seen.
Also when my wife asks hows “our” crypto doing. Bull top is in.
Bear bottom is hows “your” crypto doing.
Ant you mean? We kinda had a nice emaid surge in March 24. Emissions made sure we’ll daydream through another bullrun though ![]()
I spent the most of last December’s nights wide-eyed, clutching the phone and muttering about Christmas in Venezia, which led to my GF asking a lot. She stopped after I had bought her a car. I kinda look forward to crypto winter.
Just everything, yes there were some pumps because people believe so hard in the 4 year cycle.
The first, post-US election ascent was pretty epic. Little did we know it was pretty much it and all we had coming were a couple of green candles with formidable dumps. So I agree this bullrun was a bit of a letdown, but good money could be made anyway.
One thing I regret and slap myself for is not cashing in on privacy coins, Zcash specifically, Dash a bit, too.
Last two bullruns, we had a separate privacy coin mini-season. I made decent dough on last one, not this one. Still not sure why.
On the daily BTC chart, we see a clear downward rally after the closure of a large number of long positions, and it seems that we are heading towards a G-R-G (head and shoulders) peak formation:
However, the current dynamic decline is not yet confirmed by the accum/distr indicator, showing a positive divergence from the BTC price:
Given that indices are stretched thin, driven only by big tech and the AI bubble, Buffett’s index is at a historic high, and Buffett himself criticises corporations for greed, I will overlook the fact that the world today is a powder keg. Every sensible investor is fearful and sees more potential for declines than for growth.
There is a chance that today we will see a reversal session, supported by turnover. If nothing happens by the end of the session, we have a chance to reverse the recent declines:
If this happens, we also have a chance to defend the upward trend on the weekly BTC chart, as the recent declines have not been confirmed thanks to the positive divergence of the chart from the Accum/Distr indicator, and the upward trend has not been broken yet:
I’ve been looking at these levels for a few weeks now, it would make sense to bounce here. I’m still sensing a bit too much optimism at these levels though, and I noticed I’m not the only one expecting a bounce here. If there is anything I’ve learned (the hard way) over these last few years it’s that if a lot of people are looking at the same bottom, it’s not the bottom. Perhaps a brief flash crash to wipe out the earlier longers could do the trick.
Fingers crossed though, timing to reverse wouldn’t be the worst with the run into the Christmas break / IF2 / marketing kicking off.
It’s difficult to say, but there’s a good chance… I agree that even if many people share a similar opinion, it doesn’t necessarily mean that their predictions will come true, but note that the fear/greed indicator mentioned by Josh is a good predictor of growth ![]()
For me, this is looking like it has bottomed out. We might hang around a bit here, but I’m expecting to see some break of levels to the upside again soon.
I also have the impression that all long positions have already been liquidated, this gives us the chance to see at least one more arm. (as shown in the chart), and only then can we expect larger declines. Admittedly, Elliot’s five-wave pattern has been completed and now it would be time for an ABC corrective phase, but I hope that we still have a chance for further record gains from this level.




