Sorry to respond to this twice but I did a quick calculation and the result is quite impressive and very relevant to what you wrote here.
I fit crypto returns with a Student’s t some time ago and I got something between 2.1 and 2.5 for degrees of freedom in most cases, with 2.35 being a typical value. These values closely matched a research paper I found somewhere at the time so I consider it safe to go with. Not to mention, it’s much easier to overestimate the tail exponent than to underestimate it, which means we usually err on the unsafe side.
The variance of a Student’s t is df/(df - 2) which is about 6.71. What this means however is that … (bunch of stuff deleted because: read on)
Ugh, I slipped past the Ballmer peak and my mind is not working very well atm. So, the difference is between the population variance and the square of the sample standard deviation, and it’s much smaller, on the scale of 1.5 for a thousand samples. Not so dramatic, but still important.
I remember there was an end of 2018 price prediction topic on the old Maidsafe Reddit. Lowest guess was a bit over $3. I think most have learnt their lessons when trying to anticipate, well, anything crypto
Getting ready to back up the truck for my seasonal present to myself. Thanks to this swoon, I will hit my target holding after almost 5 years of accumulation. Best of the season to everyone.
I’m not so sure how that will affect the price though. I have foolishly bought into MAID a couple of times before or during earlier releases, like Alpha 2 and PARSEC, just to find out the price went down soon after. I think that may well happen again. There has been an upward trend recently, which I think has been in anticipation of Alpha 3, but it has been shadowed by the collapse of bitcoin now.
I don’t think Alpha 3 is much of selling point outside of this community. If I understand it right, it is just about getting part of the system work, but there isn’t anything that is actually useful to anybody. So is it something that would get more people to buy MAID? Who are these people that are supposed to buy? How many of them are there?
Hopefully before long, you’ll be very, very happy. From the MAID price perspective, Alpha 3 should, at the very least, mean people won’t hurry to sell MAID at every BTC dip, as they should feel more confident about the progress.
You also need to realize there are people following this journey and even reading this board without ever contributing or engaging. It’s not necessarily this community only. It’s plenty of people who have been rather passively following this project since the ICO.
Yes, I’m in this for the long perspective and not so much concerned about every price movement. I have just been thinking during the releases that “now this going to be a clear step up in the long term price”, just to find out that has not been the case - yet.
I don’t know what kind of MAID owners make these price movements? Are they naive small investors like me, who genuinely believe the next release is going to change something in the price of the coin? Or are they more of a loaded and experienced investors playing the “buy the rumours, sell the news” game?
Anyway I’m happy of having contributed my small money in the benefit of this project, however it turns out to become. It is a vision worth pursuing and supporting with whatever you have.
I have the view that most “anybody” can do with the Alpha 3 is setup a routing node and this way donate resources to run the Alpha 3. Nothing more. I might be wrong here.
“Secure Autonomous Network: an autonomous secure routing layer that will see the network architecture becoming more decentralised, enabling users to run routing nodes and providing secure transient data in the process”
What does that “… and providing secure transient data in the process” mean? Does it mean that users can provide transient data, such as some kind of messages? If so, that is exciting and more than I expected. And if that is open to people outside this forum, I would expect some price action too.
Must be a potpourri of people and interests. It’s like asking who keeps the price where it’s at. I know for a fact there still are people left who never uttered a word on here, never really talk about MAID – and they sound very skeptical whenever they do – and yet they still keep their ICO MAID in hundreds of thousands. Partly because it cost them little to begin with, partly because there is this tiny voice inside their head that tells them “keep doubting but never sell!”
There is a polar opposite to every extreme, so there must be small fish guys who are full of optimism, they trust this project and yet they panic-sell whenever a downswing comes.
. Prepare your wallet 
.
