We certainly do disagree, and perhaps it is something as simple as my naivete in all things computer science development. I certainly hope you are correct.
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There are people outside crypto who take risks too, and some can even think outside the box. And we now have a $2m fund to support them!
I donât get that argument at all. I do get the argument you make about a vampire network. Thatâs plausible, but I donât think itâs inevitable as you do. And I donât think itâs inevitable that it would succeed as you seem to. I also donât think our priority should be to direct limited resources at mitigating that at this point. Letâs get a working network.
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Ok, so our daily volume on Bittrex is $0.15M and volume of ADA for example is $11M. So I would think we have a chance to have about 73 times higher volume on Bittrex alone. What kind of rank could we expect with that amount of volume? Or do you think that ADAâs volume for example is tied to it having other exchanges, too?
I just think that with a good product people would flock to the exchanges having it, but you think that is unreasonable assumption?
I think we have a more of 95% chance of being the top dog. I just like to maximize our chances. If you know something works and other projects have paid millions of dollars to test it, why not use it to your advantage 
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How much of that volume is real and how much of it is market makers/bots?
Donât you need a reason to have a wrapped coin to begin with? If the network isnât seeing adoption why would anyone want to make a wrapped version?
Not if they are on multiple exchanges and their motive is profit
Increasing MAIDâs volume on Bittrex is necessary and would be helpful, but would not be enough to make a meaningful difference. Without adding additional exchanges itâs unlikely that volume for MAID on Bittrex could ever increase to $11M a day.
Cardanoâs volume on Bittrex (and on any one exchange) is tied to the total market volume for ADA (i.e. the fact that ADA is on many exchanges). ADA is listed on 50 exchanges and has 100 trading pairs. This translates to total market volume of ~$4B. A single person with a substantial position in crypto takes into account the total market volume because s/he does and wants the ability to trade an asset across multiple exchanges. Multiple exchanges mitigate risk (e.g. absorbing shocks to supply and demand, minimizing the impact of manipulation or delisting, etc.). The optionality multiple exchanges provide produces the market stability that gives people the confidence to invest/trade.
A responsible investor or trader would not take a $600K position (~10 BTC) in an asset if they didnât think they could easily get in and out of that market. Iâd want to regularly see billions in daily volume before Iâd be willing to take such a position.
As much as people may like an idea, they wonât invest en masse if the economics donât make sense, i.e. if it will be hard to realize any return on investment. Right now, the economics for MAID donât really inspire confidence because the market is too shallow and thereâs not enough liquidity or exchange access. People will not (in large numbers) take this project seriously until that changes. Unfortunately, exchanges are wary to take the risk of listing MAID until they start to see more volume and liquidity.
Weâre facing a chicken and the egg problem. How do we increase liquidity to get on more exchanges if you need to be on more exchanges to see an increase in liquidity?
One solution would be for more people on this forum to actively trade. However, many of the people on the forum are âtrue believersâ, not concerned about immediate ROI, not actually holders of a significant amount of MAID, unable to access the two exchanges that currently list MAID, &/or are unwilling to sell at current prices. All of these factors result in significant liquidity challenges.
Even if a significant number of people on this forum could be motivated to provide liquidity, itâs unlikely there are enough people here to make a meaningful difference. While some have returned, the number of active participants on this forum has declined over the years. We need more people to join the fold. Much like getting listed on more exchanges, we face another chicken and the egg problem here too.
Another solution to the liquidity challenge is market-making. Many projects (like Blockstack for example) enlist market-makers to help provide liquidity for a short amount of time until the system can sustain itself. This may be necessary to revitalize the market for MAID and give exchanges and those who could wrap MAID as an ERC20 token the confidence to do so.
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Just to add on. I know we have also gone through the whole âwho cares about the USâ thing before but we are here and canât provide liquidity anywhere right now even if we wanted to. Yes it might not be a game changer but people with decent supplies have no access to help the issue. Great explanation like always.
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Yes. Most of us live in a crypto bubble. Its like shouting into a hurricane sometimes. The Safe network is, and has always been a project that can reach out, far beyond the crypto-sphere. Crypto is but a drop in a deep investment ocean. It barely registers on the chart below. We must think beyond, and throw our shiny network hooks deeper. And with the new fund I think this team can enjoy some fishing.
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Itâs gap between liquidity and buyers who want to get in but too little for sale. At same time they are impatient to put limit buy orders and wait to get filled (which doesnât happen as people keep market buying big chuncks). Still price falls down that the rising limit buy order support which is rising along with the market buys.
When the close to high ratio becomes less then the impulsive market buying lessens and the liquidity on both sides increases. You can see this as full candles without too much tail at top or bottom. The large wicks show that buyers have to buy all the way across the gap to get the required sell liquidity they need.
You can see this clearly in the divergence of top line (highs) and the low line (lows), high line is increasing in a higher slope than low line.
Ideally we would want to see a curved increasing bottom which would quickly translate to parabolic advance. The trend we see here is early as the limit buys are not increasing in an exponential trend yet, they notice the buying but the fomo phase has yet to come.
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Most supporters/investors are longtime holders and the volume in exchanges reflect that. We just want to see the technology work in testnet/beta etc, When itâs proved, we will be in a completely different world. With proven tech I am convinced that big SN holders/investors will make sure that we are listed in all exchanges and start making the marked. Before the tech is proven its a hold and see. Maybe support at bottom in the price: Prove the tech and I believe we will see a big repricing in the marked. This in combination with the spin off from BG Fund will give us the bust we need to kick start the marketing and adoption etc.
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Thanks for your answer, and taking the time to write it. It certainly helps me understand the reasoning behind your point of view. Iâm also now inclined to think, that there is a roof the price and rank in MCap is going to hit with only one exchange, but I wonder how high the roof might be?
Roughly speaking:
2x current price = top 100
5x = top 70
7x = top 50
10x= top 40
17x = top 20
Do you (or anyone) have opinions what position would be possible before we have more exchanges?
I also spotted that I have difficulty in understanding any price and trading talk that talks about the object traded without referencing to the properties of the object itself and the properties (or goals) of the traders.
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Happy to share. It used to seem a mystery to me that the price of MAID has been struggling. But, upon closer inspection it became clear that the market fundamentals just donât support price appreciation due to the lack of liquidity and broad exchange access.
This is really hard to say. On average, Decentralized Storage / Internet & dApp Platform projects in the top 200 are listed on 37 exchanges with 68 trading pairs. If we look at the four projects with the least amount of exchanges, we see that:
- Blockstack (12 exchanges w/ 19 trading pairs) is ranked 66 w/ a market cap of ~$1.4B & ~$25M in trading volume
- Arweave (13 exchanges w/ 16 trading pairs) is ranked 93 w/ a market cap of ~$730M & ~$18M in trading volume
- Maidsafe (2 exchanges w/ 4 trading pairs) is ranked 141 w/ a market cap of ~$290M & ~$1.5M in trading volume
- RSK (8 exchanges w/ 8 trading pairs) is ranked 163 w/ a market cap of ~$235M & ~$4M in trading volume
Based on the above, I think the roof without solving the liquidity/exchange listing challenge is probably top 70 if lucky, but probably more realistically at barely cracking the top 100 again in a sustained way.
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I donât recall anybody saying they donât care about the US. Itâs one of the biggest economies in the world as well as home to some of the people who need the Safe Network the most. I certainly care a great deal about the US, but influencing/fighting a regime/military like that is no walk in the park. If the US government wants to make things difficult for the crypto economy, there is not much one can do. It is unfortunate, but change will have to come from elsewhere.
I find it noteworthy that interest in crypto (Bitcoin) according to Google trends is biggest in some of the poorest countries in the world, as well as in some of the richest ones. The ones who are on top now wonât necessarily stay there forever.
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&q=bitcoin
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After all this time and mistakes (yes a lot of wrong turns, rethinks, management errors and more) we simply have to start with âworking networkâ. We can define the working of course, for me though it must be feature complete. Again feature-complete is confusing when you have economic inputs. In any case, we need to deliver, even in Fleming
- Stability
- Scale
- Security
Until this, I feel almost 100% of the MaidSafe Engineering teams focus will be on only this.
Then the user engagement story in parallel, and that means âwhat can I do and how can I do it?â. We have @JimCollinson there and that makes me comfortable for sure.
When these things are in place we shout from the heights, âThis is it!â and let folk know the worlds gonna change. I cannot stress enough the ability to disconnect data from a live network is paramount, thatâs our armageddon protection and all network that store humanities (dynamic and static) knowledge needs armageddon protection .
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I mean that certainly tests the garden variety of not caring. There have been other comments along the way but that wasnât the main point of what I posted again. Exchanges do exist in the US, such as voyager, that have privacy coins like Monero. As I said in a post yesterday obviously those two projects are currently in different stages but the idea that itâs a US govt thing only and there are no options to list maid in the US is more the culmination of maids current standing, not US regulation. Iâm not trying to complain, just want to set the narrative straight about where the US market sits. If that knowledge is incorrect, Iâll gladly look at my errors.
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I see no sign of not caring in that quote. Quite the contrary actually.
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US exchange access, while important, is tangential to the broader liquidity and exchange access crisis. Even adding an additional 5-10 exchanges that operate outside of the US would be an immense improvement. To me increasing the exchange footprint and liquidity is the primary goal; US access is secondary.
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Thatâs an interesting diluted way of looking at it however thatâs again is not the main point. US opportunities exist, but I also back what @Sotros25 said below that exchanges, in quality and quantity is more important than US access currently.
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