MaidSafeCoin (MAID) - Price & Trading topic (Part 1)

Autonomi Network Token (incl (e)MAID) Price
6997

A lot of good points made in the last little while. I have always done my mental math with the full amount of SAFE in circulation, lets call it 4B for ease of discussion. The question is what value can the network have and how does that scale with size? Metcalfe’s law? Is dilution really the risk under a scenario where we are talking about a large network? Or are other risks far more salient?

Bitcoin has a market cap of 120B with 550k unique addresses, most of them surely not really significant. From the chart posted above, 99% dilution occurs with 500k nodes, but who knows… I sure wouldn’t put stock in that. I will however state flat out that a SAFE node is a far better indication of network success and value than a bitcoin address. Users of course can far exceed nodes. If SAFE ever actually hits a half million contributing nodes, I don’t think dilution will be an issue… at that point it would be one of the hardest networks on the planet, supporting tons of possible services.

I do think the issues rather lie with the network simply not working or having serious issues while scaling (it won’t be truly secure until there are a great many nodes, perhaps not 500k, but a lot more than it is likely to start with). I think the network will work and thus think of the second worse case in terms of a company like dropbox (10B cap). Right now, we are priced like SAFE is 8% as valuable as dropbox (fully diluted), which is probably somewhere from high to reasonable considering execution risk versus utility we know exists. So this is the bet… can SAFE be as useful as dropbox? If you think that there is at least an 8% weighted expectation of that + some for time value, then it is a fair price. The market seems to have a huge gap between skeptics and those believing in the larger vision. One group will be disappointed, but even achieving a fraction of the potential could result in a reasonable (not moonshot) return from here. I’m obviously on record as considering this a really fair bet at present.

6998

Is Bitcoin 14x more valuable than Dropbox? SAFENetwork is so much more than just storage.

4 Likes
6999

I am in a position of deep agnosticism on the value of bitcoin. It did however shine a bright light on the way forwards, for which we can all be grateful.

That’s why I try to think in terms of as similar utility as possible … dropbox has 500 million users and 400B files on it. SAFE obviously has vastly wider utility (including currency) but that is a hell of a lot of onboarding. Still forms a baseline for a pure storage solution. SAFE better than SIA? Worth a double from here. etc. You can toss in as many services as you want, but the issue with SAFE is that it demonetizes many of them. Sure it may be a superior email solution etc., but it basically takes the value of many services and turns them to pure hardware cost as far as capitalization goes unless use as a currency takes off. Hardness, uncensorability, and currency that can access those services is the real offer. Like I said, I think it is a vastly asymmetric bet, but the risks are definitely real.

7000

Defined: “Least Rational” = “appx. Full Belief” (not naivety). So yes: I’m saying that speculators/investors, who aren’t the ones creating the network to begin with, should utilize that strong Belief asset of theirs, to make the inevitable success of this project even more inevitable, quicker, etc. … Plus it’s not like they haven’t had their share of rationalization, because: all their ‘initial rationalization’ already came from the fact that they’ve been on board with this idea since the beginning, where each technological/fundamental aspect was shown to be sound. And with each passing year there’s more to show of it—with no backing down by the developers (and in fact, a speeding up). So why go into other projects? Rhetorical question.

Math doesn’t matter in the sense that you’re using it, an overwhelmingly limited way. If you proved that there’d be 5,000 - 10,000+ x, or, hell, flat out infinite inflation: then it would be good math.

Almost everyone uses the Internet. Almost everyone uses a cell-phone. Almost everyone uses money. Maidsafe has utility for every single one of these people. Not everyone uses cars. There’s that math.
Safenet has something to offer the world that nothing else does. And it does so in the most economical way that would benefit 100% of every group of people in the entire world, good and bad people, that someone would have to be crazy not to use it.

I would also have that extremely negative opinion about criminal organizations being the only ones (lol) using Safe, if I was plugged into a control grid already, with no way to think, ahem, rationally, about how, uh, again, literally everyone would benefit from this. You don’t need mainstream opinionated figureheads telling you what to do. And if you do, there better damn well be people who are willing to break out of that indoctrination. And yes indoctrination is THE most powerful influence in the entire universe, bar none. But people are generally better about breaking out of indoctrination if it comes to them in a technological construct that makes sense. It will probably take more effort to do that these days than if this was released a few years ago, but not too much. It’s still a great effort needed, but I really want to see every person willing to go that mile by breaking through all indoctrination and showing how much easier everyone’s life will be. I think only the most hardheaded hicks in the entire world will be the only ones alone, huddling together; so, I guess, factor out their $1trillion… lol!

2 Likes
7001

So, how will the launch affect price? And what is the ETA for launch?

7002

I think my estimate of Fleming by 30 June will be a few months short. I’m still thinking initial beta by late 2021

1 Like
7003

They take another 2 1/2 years for initial beta and there will be no money left to operate.

1 Like
7004

You assume there will be no further investment. I’d say this is highly unlikely, especially if they have an MVP in the bag.

2 Likes
7005

There is plenty of money around. It’s just a matter of the right deal for both parties. Blockstack is seeking $50 mill but they will yield to authorities to get it.

1 Like
7006

Beginner’s question: Is MVP still “a working network without messaging and SafeCoin” as discussed in this 2016 thread Release Terminology Clarified -- MVP? - #88 by Artiscience or has it changed since?

1 Like
7007

No, the project plan we are all working to will define clear deliverables as we move on. That way we are all clear what each deliverable will do. I am keen every release is more feature complete than the last, if that helps. Fleming is our next release, but a few deliverables en-route.

15 Likes
7008

Another report (you have to pay for) mentioning MaidSafe:
Distributed Storage System Industry Will Be Fiercely Competitive in 2026

6 Likes
7009

what way are you guys betting on the open margin orders closing on polo? My guess is more longs then shorts. I mean not long ago we saw a huge wall get eaten. I have my buy orders deep to catch that swing if there is a large surplus of longs trying to liquidate.

7011

no they are giving some time to find the best price. you can still place margin orders but only ones that reduce your current position. I don’t think they have mentioned a deadline yet. I imagine they will give lots of time since there is no increasing threat of default in doing so.

That’s why I am speculating on what is currently still out there. if there’s even a 20BTC surplus in longs(vs shorts) we could see a big flash crash. I have staggered orders going down real deep right now to get a piece of that if it happens.

7012

Given all the possibilities of the Safenetwork, it is often easy forget just simply how good a cryptocurrency the Safecoin will be:

  • Instant transactions
  • Scales well
  • No fees
  • Anonymous
  • Environmental friendly

These came to my mind quickly …what else?

3 Likes
7013

May go without saying, but Safecoin is also highly secure too

3 Likes
7014

Good point. It also seems to me that for an average person the security is easier to achieve than with other coins.

2 Likes
7015

I don’t really agree with that unless you say that hardware wallets are beyond the average person.

7016

MAID right now is usable as currency. Although it does not have as many features as SAFEcoin will have. I would love to see us kickstart that branch of value creation like right now though. Nothing stopping us from trading widgets for MAID today. IMO this is something we should not wait until final to get going. It will take some time, and prolly multiple attempts, to find traction as a currency. I don’t think mass adoption for that happens so much from features as it does from marketing and we can totally work on that any time.

7017

looks like some of those longs are trying to close maybe. If so, hang on tight guys this is gonna be a fun ride… If you don’t have your lowball buy orders locked in yet I would get on that now!

My prediction is a brief moment of some unreal cheap MAID then we stabilize and such an event never happens again since margins are now closed. I am looking at this like it might be the minimum price of any time moving forward.

2 Likes