Why Do We Invest? The primary reason for investment is to generate profit. We invest in various assets to grow our existing wealth. For instance, in stock investments, we expect to earn returns through dividends and capital gains, believing that these returns will exceed our initial investment.
- Dividends: A portion of a company’s earnings distributed to investors.
- Capital Gains: Profit earned from fluctuations in market prices.
To receive substantial dividends, a company must be profitable. This implies that the company is offering valuable products to a large customer base. (Key factors: number of users, utility, competitive advantage)
On the other hand, capital gains are determined by market dynamics, making them highly volatile. While prices generally follow intrinsic value, they are also influenced by credit-based liquidity, which leads to significant fluctuations. As long as sovereign states exist, liquidity will continue to increase over time despite cyclical variations. (Key factors: market price, liquidity)
We cannot precisely predict market price movements. However, we do know that liquidity continues to grow due to its credit-based nature. Therefore, aside from the fundamental principle that “assets with intrinsic value tend to appreciate in the long run,” it is difficult to determine the optimal timing for buying or selling specific assets.
Therefore, I will not analyze market prices, which are nearly impossible to evaluate, but instead focus on the factors that determine intrinsic value.
Investment Evaluation Criteria
To assess the value of an investment, we must consider three key aspects:
- Potential for User Growth – Will the number of users continue to increase?
- Usability – Is the technology or service sufficiently practical?
- Sustainable Competitive Advantage – Can the project maintain its competitiveness over time?
Based on these criteria, we will analyze Autonomi (Autonomi Network).
Autonomi Analysis
1. Potential for User Growth
Autonomi Network allows anyone with internet access and a computer to operate a node. Users can upload data with a small amount of Ethereum and ANT while maintaining privacy and avoiding censorship. Additionally, all users can freely access the stored data. This framework supports a decentralized and censorship-resistant data ecosystem, which is highly attractive to a broad audience, increasing the likelihood of user growth.
The network is designed to scale efficiently, ensuring continued stability and expansion as user adoption increases.
2. Usability
Data is often referred to as “the new oil,” and AI is the primary technology leveraging this resource. The U.S. government’s “Stargate Project” demonstrates a massive investment in data centers rather than AI algorithm improvements, highlighting the importance of data infrastructure. Furthermore, as demonstrated by DeepShark, AI models are becoming more lightweight over time. The crucial factor is who controls the data and where it is stored.
Autonomi Network provides a solution by enabling permanent, censorship-resistant, and private data storage with a single payment. This high usability facilitates diverse applications, fostering the emergence of a new digital ecosystem.
3. Sustainable Competitive Advantage
Currently, Autonomi payment operates on the Arbitrum network, requiring users to manage both Ethereum and ANT tokens, which may introduce some complexity. However, Autonomi’s core strength does not lie in payment systems but in data ownership.
As the volume of stored data grows, it becomes increasingly difficult for competitors to catch up. This principle mirrors why nations like the U.S. and China compete for digital supremacy by aggressively expanding data center infrastructure. If Autonomi accumulates more data than its competitors, its AI models will achieve superior performance, driving user adoption and reinforcing a positive feedback loop.
Once this virtuous cycle is established, Autonomi will maintain its dominance in the network competition. Additionally, its decentralized nature allows it to leverage hundreds of millions of interconnected personal computers worldwide, creating the largest data network without requiring enormous capital investment.
While lower transaction fees are beneficial, they are not a critical factor. If transaction fees across all blockchain networks were reduced to zero, Bitcoin and Ethereum would face severe challenges because the need to maintain the network converges to almost zero. However, for Autonomi, lower fees increase its accessibility and usability, further strengthening its competitive edge.
Autonomi’s Growth Stages (Personal Classification)
Stage 1: Network Stability & Perpetual Assurance of data with Privacy
Autonomi is currently in this phase, where the primary focus is ensuring network permanence, privacy protection, and stable data storage.
- With the upcoming token launch and new network deployment, real-world testing will assess the network’s security and robustness.
- As long as the network remains operational, data will persist due to its self-replicating characteristics.
- Given that encrypted junk data continues to circulate, privacy is expected to be highly secure.
Once the development team fully resolves any technical issues and guarantees permanent privacy protection, Stage 1 will be completed (estimated to take 1–3 months).
Stage 2: Enhancing Usability and Accessibility
This phase focuses on making it easier for users to store and access data on the network.
- The Autonomi team is currently developing a Python API, DAVE, and a web browser to facilitate broader adoption.
- Once this phase is complete, network usability will significantly improve, leading to accelerated user growth.
- At this stage, a self-reinforcing cycle begins: Users upload data and deploy apps → Attracts new users → Increased data accumulation enhances network value, ensuring sustained competitive advantage.
Stage 3: Future Innovations and AI Integration
In this phase, data will evolve into knowledge, integrating with AI to create unprecedented services and applications.
- The exact implementation and outcomes of this stage remain uncertain, requiring further research and development.
- However, it is expected to generate entirely new value propositions and productivity enhancements.
- The introduction of DAG technology will significantly reduce transaction fees, thereby maximizing usability and sustaining Autonomi’s competitive edge.
Conclusion: The Broader Purpose of Investment
Investment is not solely about making money—it is also a learning process for me. The past decade of waiting has been long, but during this period, I have gained extensive knowledge and experience. If Autonomi had succeeded 10 years ago, I would not have had the opportunity to learn as much as I have now.
Thus, I share this analysis to continue learning and growing. Constructive feedback is always welcome.