Here’s where I would like to poke an hole in your theory ;-). If we take 1 million users and account for the fact that the distribution is almost random, some Chunks might be 20 Hops away at max. But others will be just 1 Hop away. So the average distance to a chunk should be 10 without any caching. And now we add caching, which means that we have to know the amount of RAM it is allowed to use. The higher, the better (will be very good for those who bought Safecoin at the crowdsale). According to the fact that people behave as sheep, and a lot of them will watch the latest episode of Homeland at the same time, the average chunk might be only 7 or 8 hops away. Another point to make is that the Chunks are compressed. Let me know if you can poke some holes back 
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