Maybe I missed it but what is your timeline for retirement? Like in how many years?
Mainly you and the rest of us are relying entirely on launch of the network, conversion to the real utility token, and then a good strategy for mass adoption and on/off ramps to fiat or exchanges.
Unless there is a bunch of marketing hype and increased liquidity in a secular bull market in the next two years, that is the only way you could sell a large bag without affecting price and having made enough profit.
Once we actually launch/convert/etc it’s anyones guess on price really. Many long time investors would likely dump immediately if they already hadn’t yet, the smart ones would wait even longer for mass adoption but that can take a long time so if there was enough hype at launch maybe that’s be the best bet.
I think if token price is important to people it’s essential to have market makers. They are kinda an evil thing really, to those who are looking to trade that can be outwitted by them. What the small time trader loses, the market maker takes from them but the market makers can also drive price action and help provide necessary liquidity to grow a tokens price and adoption. That is something I have my doubts that Maidsafe would ever partake in, personally but if enough community members with modest bags came together, they could hire a professional MM firm to do so AFAIK. It would probably be worth it long and short term for the remainder of everyone’s personal allocation to do so.
If I was to land on a round number in such a scenario, short term after launch I think $20. Not sure why. After a MM is in place, another thing to consider besides how much circulating supply at launch, market cap, and previous price action would be how much competing projects like FIL, HBAR, SIA, STORJ, are all pricing in at. That could be one of the better gauges of what we should or could expect.
A great comparison of a project not growing in price to another is HBAR compared to FIL. They both had ICO’s only accessible to accredited and angel investors. AFAIK FIL have MM’s, and I know for a fact that the company that sold HBAR was opposed to and did not engage in MM.
Look at the price, performance, and hype difference between FIL and HBAR and if you are at all concerned with price of our token then that should show you what we as a community, secondary to our main concern of mass adoption for EVERYONE (rich or poor) and positive impact to the world, should focus on before an official launch/conversion so we are prepared.
I think @Sotros25 would probably back me up here and I hope when that time comes she could help spearhead such a community project because if everyone pitched in a small percentage of our bags it would benefit price, trader activity, exchange adoption, token adoption, protocol adoption, etc across the board long term.
We could grow more slowly and organically as well and that sounds great but to see what you might be expecting in that scenario, we’ll have probably been so far into retirement we’d be too senile to remember what we did with our keys.
Food for thought. Open to discussion or other opinions.